Wednesday, December 29, 2010
LUPIN : Is the correction over ?
Trade less, trade well
Monday, December 27, 2010
Merry X mas
There are a very few sectors that are taking the Nifty up.
From the pharma pack Sun Pharma, Orchid Chemicals and Bio Con looks strong on charts.
Tata Chemicals and Nagarjuna construction seem to have bottomed out.
Mid cap space is showing lots of buying interest and some of the fallen hero like Crew Bos, Hanung Toys etc may show some more upside from here.
Tata Chemical has support at 380 and res are at 416/ 425
Friday, December 24, 2010
Food Inflation :
http://swingtradingideas.blogspot.com/2010/11/food-inflation-is-here-to-stay.html
Yesterday these factors coupled with some more internal factors resulted in lackluster session. As far as Nifty is concerned 6070 remains a major hurdle. On charts Nifty is making lower top . On the other hand 5900-5950 remains strong support.
Orchid Chemical looks strong on chart and so does Vijaya Bank. But overall Banking sector is not performing therefore, sectoral tail wind is not there for Vijaya Bank but its a buy on dip stocks.
Pharma and IT sector may remain isolated from rising inflation and Interest rate worries .
Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Metal Sector outshines : Bhushan Steel
Bhushan steel seems to coming out of consolidation and has potential to move up to 490 - 500.
On LME Copper is making new high . Sterlite has a very choppy chart . It has multi support at 160 and 180-190 is resistance zone.
As far as Nifty is concerned the level of 6070 is very important. Once it trade above this level for few session then only we can see some more upside.
Monday, December 20, 2010
IT, Oil and Gas, Metal & Phrama may provide support to the broader market.
We believe these sector may provide support to Nifty. Nifty has a stiff pivot resistance at 6070. Once it is able to trade above this level then only we can expect some more upside to 6150-6200 lvl\s.
Aurbindo Pharma is poised to make a new high.TCS and Infosys may surprise us on upside.
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Will Reliance provide leadership in 2011.
Metals stocks have done well in the recent pull back. Reliance has provided support to the Indices. Banks are still under performing. Will Oil and Gas , Infra and Metal will provide leadership in next bull run ? We will be tracking these sectors closely .
Will Reliance provide the leadership in the next year? Is has multi support at 900-950 and stiff resistance at 1140-1150.
We are also presenting here the monthly chart of Reliance.
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
Time to sip coffee
In this recent carnage some of good stocks got hammered for no apparent reason . They have corrected to 200 EMA and now are showing resumption of uptrend.
Tata Coffee CCL are some of the stocks one should consider. Tata coffee has good support at 480 and resistance at 590.
Small PSU banks like UCO bank , Vijaya Bnaks are showing good buy patterns on charts.
Nifty may trade in a range and action may shift to individual stocks .
Trade less, trade well
Tuesday, November 23, 2010
We are not out of woods yet
From here two probability emerge:
1 Market may pull back to recent high and then correct
2 market may correct from here and then pull back to recent high and make new high .
Either way a correction is inevitable and healthy for the market and after a decent correction we will see new high.
Consumption story will play on . TTk Prestige, Jubilant Food, Bata, VIP, Amar Remedies, Titan , Uflex , Orchid Chemicals should be on your radar and correction should be used to buy these stocks.
Wednesday, November 17, 2010
History Of Nifty Corrections
Thursday, November 11, 2010
Videocon and Lupin
Lupin has had a closing at life time high and is poised to move higher from here
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
Tata motors and Amar
HUL has also trading at ten year high.
There is another stock which trading at life time high and has a very strong pattern on chart. Amar Remedies is slowly and steadily climbing up with strong volume.
We believe from here on market is going to be stock specific. Stock selection is going to be key . Watch out this space for stock ideas.
Friday, November 5, 2010
Happy Diwali
Markets has already given us reason to celebrate the festival of light.
One should look for Domestic Consumption story as a theme for this year.
We will discuss about it more in coming days.
Nifty has zoomed once it crossed past 6150 , the level which we were talking about for the past one week.
Trade well and trade less
Wednesday, November 3, 2010
Shipping Sector
Some fertilizer stocks also showed upward traction. Manglore Chemical and Fertilizer has support at 41 and resistance at 50-55
Today Nifty may trade above 6150 and if it closes above 6150 then we may see it facing hurdles at 6230-6250
Trade less , trade well
Tuesday, November 2, 2010
Food Inflation is here to stay
Well, in my opinion it would be a difficult task to tame the rising food inflation. Despite the good monsoon what we are facing globally is fickle and erratic rain fall. In our county we had floods in UK, Punjab which affected paddy crop . We had drought in Bihar and had scanty rainfall in some parts of the country. The area under agriculture is getting reduced day by day and after the Green Revolution there has been no serious efforts to increase the productivity.
Irony of this rising inflation is that the farmers are still not getting the benefit of higher food price . We will talk about it in detail in some other time.
Today market may remain flat and volatile ahead of the key events.
Keep HDFC and BPCL on your radar.
Monday, November 1, 2010
ICICI Bank
Bajaj Auto has support at 1480 and resistances are at 1540-1580 and 1615.This stock is coming out of downward sloping channel and has consolidated a lot.
If Nifty is able to trade above 6150 then we may see some more upside provided RBI credit policy and Fed QE goes well with the market.
Nifty has got supports at 5930-5960 and resistances are at 6150.
Trade less, trade well.
Friday, October 29, 2010
Nifty : Head and Shoulder
On daily chart Nifty is making head and shoulder formation and the neck line is around 5950-60. If this neck line is broken and FIIs inflow dries up or some money is taken out then there is hardly any support from Domestic front.
The target for Nifty if the neck line is breached comes around 5650-5700.
One should remain cautious and should wait for the reversal in trend.
Thursday, October 28, 2010
Aviation Sector: Jet Airways and KFA.
Market can not remain in this range forever . It has to come out of this range at present the biases are on downside.If 5960 is taken out then we may see 5800 also.
Aviation sector as a whole stood the onslaught which was witnessed yesterday. Jet Air, King Fisher Airlines and Spice Jet saw jump in price with surge in volume. Our swing trading ideas Arvind Mill also outperformed.
King Fisher Airline has got support at 79 and resistance at 86-90.
Trade less, trade well
Wednesday, October 27, 2010
Banks outshine again
Dena bank had a spectacular closing yesterday with large volume and this stock can be accumulated at every dip.
Crew BOS has support at 185 and resistance is at 230. This stock also closed at new high.
Textile sector is another space which is outperforming the broader market. Keep Arvind Mill on your radar.
Markets may remain volatile on the back of future and options expiry.
Nifty has support at 6030-6050 and resisatnce is at 6150
Monday, October 25, 2010
PSU banks as a sector outperforms
Andhra bank, Allahabad bank, Canara Bank all are trading at new highs and any dip should be used to buy.
Karur Vyasya Bank has come out of consolidation and may face resistance at 590-610
Trade less, trade well
Friday, October 22, 2010
Canara Bank and Central Bank zooms
Markets had a smart rally yesterday. Some of stocks made a new high after a long consolidation.
Bhushan Steel and United Phos are the two stocks which saw a sharp run up to new highs .
Bank of India has also seems to have resumed its uptrend.
Thursday, October 21, 2010
Volatilty may continue
Canara Bank, Central bank, Dwarkesh Sugar, Castrol looks good on chart . One should trade with small quantity and most of your money should be in cash so as to take advantage of better prices and to avoid getting whipsawed in these turbulent times.
Tuesday, October 19, 2010
Smart recovery but the correction is not over
Bank of India can be bought on intraday basis with stop of 524 and possible target of 538-550.
There are some stocks which are in correction mode but may come out of it and resume uptrend. Mcdowel, Exide and SRF fall into this category. Keep them on your radar . Of these three SRF looks strong on charts.
Monday, October 18, 2010
Nifty is at support level : Textile Sector in Focus
Textile stocks as a sector has shown momentum build up.Garden Silk, Raymond, SKumars are good bet.
Arvind has support at 47 and resistances are at 60-62.
Uflex has support at 290 and resistance at 350.
Wednesday, September 29, 2010
Shipping Stocks Zoom
Though most of the stocks have been trading in a range GE shipping may break out of the range . The upper part of the range is at 325 and once it trades above it then it may zoom to 340-350.
Bank of India and M & M closed at life time high and they become a buy on dips stocks.
Oriental Bank of Commerce has support at 448 and resistances are at 476-500.
Tuesday, September 28, 2010
Berger Paint
Welcorp has support at 255 and resistances are at 275-280
Berger Paint has support at 106 and resistances are at
123-130
Monday, September 27, 2010
TCS and Crew BOS
TCS has support at 920 and resistance at 958
Axis Bank has support at 1460 and resistance at 1570
Crew BOS has support at 163 and resistance at 185
Godrej consumer has support at 390 and resistance at 470
Trade less, trade well
Sunday, September 26, 2010
HUL comes out of 9 year trading range
Hindustan Uni Lever has been trading in a range of 126-306 for the past 9 years. It has broken out of this range in the tenth year. It has done so on the back of huge volume.Now this stock is in no resistance zone and from here it may go even further and immediate target is 400-450.
This stock also made a all time high of 323 in the year 2000. One should buy this stock on every dip.
We are presenting below the yearly chart of HUL .
There are some other stocks who fall into this category. ITC is also trading at life time high.
Oil Marketing Companies BPCL, HPCL, IOC are also trading at multi year high . Some other stocks are SBI, Tata Motors , M & M , HDFC Bank, HDFC, Infosys , TCS and Axis Bank.
These all are front line stocks which are providing leadership to the current rally.
These are the new leaders of this bull run
Friday, September 24, 2010
Nifty at resistance
Meanwhile , stock specific action is seen.
Lupin had closed at life time high and every pull is an buying opportunity. 370 is support area and it can touch 450 on higher side
PTC and PFC have also resumed their uptrend after corrections. PFC has support at 330 and resistance at 360. PTC has support at 110 and resistance is at 130.
Trade lesss, trade well.
Monday, September 20, 2010
APIL
APIL has support at 755 and resistances are at 804- 840.
Trades less, trade well
Wednesday, September 15, 2010
Life at 5860
Bank Nifty has been the leader and it has not made new high for the past two days.Time for correction ? Well, if it closes below 11900 then only we may see some weakness creeping in.
Our list of momentum stocks which we discussed on this blog on 5th September has outperformed the broader market.
Monday, September 13, 2010
Andhra Bank and Ipca Lab
Nifty is all set to make new high. The momentum is strong so ride it.
Andhra Bank has support at 152 and resistances are at 167-175
Ipca Lab has support at 290 and resistances are at 327-350
Trade less, trade well
Tuesday, September 7, 2010
Nifty breaksout but 5680 is stiff resistance
We talked about importance of RIL in our previous post and yesterday RIL provided support to Nifty.RIL is now taking support at 900-920 zone and this area provides opportunity for some bottom fishing. Similarly Sterlite has multiple support at 150 zone and this can be considered as good buying zone.
Nifty has now support at 5480-5515 and resistances are at 5680. Going forward in short term upward seems limited and instead of getting euphoric about this breakout one should think of taking money off the table and wait for some low risk opportunities to enter again.
Monday, September 6, 2010
GSPIL and IOB
Nifty may trade in range with upward biases.
Tube Investment is a buy above 133 with stop of 125 and resistance at 150.
GSPL is a buy above 119.50 with stop of 115 and resistance at 130.
IOB has support at 129 and resistances are at 140-155.
Trade less, trade well
Sunday, September 5, 2010
Momentum stocks
This weekend I reflected on mid cap theme which is the area where smart money is pitching in and offers money making opportunities for traders. These mid cap stocks are also showing tremendous strength as they come back from the retracement sharply and make new highs.
Let us discuss these stocks
Banking sector has been the leader but there are stocks like Central Bank, Corporation Bank and Karur Vysa bank which are very showing good momentum.There are other stocks like State Bank of Travancore, State bank of Bikaner, State Bank of Mysore ; all these stocks are up on the back of merger news with SBI but they have run too fast .
The other group is Consumer Durables where Videocon Ind Bajaj Electicals Hitachi Home, VIP, IFB , Panasonic, Whirlpool are showing momentum.
Another category is auto , auto ancillary and Bicycle stocks. Escorts, VS Motor,Atlas, Hercules, Motherson SS, Suderram, Asahi Glass, Exide , Amar raja Battery Castrol, Auto Ind , Apolo Tyre, Ceat and JK Tyre are zooming .
Wellness stocks like Zydus Wellness, Talwarkers are also good bet .
Mid Cap pharma Like Amar Remedies ,Wockpharma Ajanta, Natco, FDC is another space
Stocks and allied like Ruchi Soya, Jubillant Foods, Venkeys are also food for thought .
Travel and leisure stocks like Cox and kings, Thomas cook is another space to look for.
There are some stocks like Hanung , Bata India , IGL, Vguard , Deepak Fertlizer , Tata Chem, GSPL, Petro net , Godrej properties and DCM which are trading in a new territory.
How to trade these stocks ?
The best way to but these stocks is during dips/ corrections. keep them on your radar or make a watch list.
Thursday, September 2, 2010
A furious global rally
At present every dips seems to buying opportunity.
Crompton Greves has support at 296 and resistance is at 350.
On mobile has support at 320 and resistance at 350-360.
Trade less, trade well.
Wednesday, September 1, 2010
We may trade in range again?
Auto, FMCG and select pharma stocks bounced back. One should trade on the long side with low quantity as we are not out of woods yet.
Dr Reddy has formed multiple bottom on char and 1320 is major support while 1360-1370 is stiff resistance if the stocks is able to trade above the resistance areas then it may go up to 1410-1430.
M & M has support at 610 and resistances are at 637-646-657.
Nifty is at 5400 and RIL the heavy weight is at new low. Had Reliance participated in this rally then imagine where Nifty would have been !
Tuesday, August 31, 2010
Nifty is in short term downtrend
Its in short term downtrend and resistances are at 5450- 5480 and supports are at 5300-5350.
On the up side Hotel Stocks may see some interest on the back of EIH and RIL deal.
EI Hotels has support at 137 and resistances are at 172-200.
Monday, August 30, 2010
Jim Rogers is bullish on Agri Commodities and Gold
"There are 3 billion people in Asia, and most of them had not had a very good standard of living in the past 100 or 200 years. That's changing and changing very rapidly. They're going to eat more, they're going to wear more clothes…so agriculture is going to do very well."
You can read in detail :
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38913263
Sunday, August 29, 2010
Trading in the zone : Mark Douglus
CREATING A BELIEF IN CONSISTENCY
Creating a belief that "I am a consistent winner" is the primary objective, but like my intention to
become a runner, it's too broad and abstract to implement without breaking it down into a step-by-step
process. So what I'm going to do is break this belief down into its smallest definable parts and then give
you a plan to integrate each part as a dominant belief. The following sub-beliefs are the building blocks.
Thinking Like a Trader blocks that provide the underlying structure for what it means "to be a
consistent winner."
I AM A CONSISTENT WINNER BECAUSE:
1. I objectively identify my edges.
2. I predefine the risk of every trade.
3. I completely accept risk or I am willing to let go of the trade.
4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.
5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.
6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.
7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and, therefore, I
never violate them.
Wednesday, August 25, 2010
Most of the global markets are trading below 200 DMA
There are some stocks which are very good on charts and every dips should be used to buy them.
Zydus wellness and Castrol we have talked about them many times are still in long term uptrend .
Similarly Bajaj auto and TVS Motor.
Tvs Motor has support at 140 and resistanc at 160-170 .
Pirmal health has support at 505 and resistance at 540-547
Tuesday, August 24, 2010
Stock specific action
It has support at 111 and resistances are at 125-130.
Polaris software ( though the sectoral tail wind is not supporting ) has support at 169 and resistances are at 190-195.
Monday, August 23, 2010
Mid Cap Ideas
BajajElectriclas has made a life time high and it has support at 251 and resistance at 300.
Sunderam fastener has support at 57 and resistance at 72.
Lakshmi vilas bank has support at 115 and resistance at 150
Trade less, trade well
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
Mid Cap may continue to outperform .
Mid cap may continue to outperform.
Prakash Industries has come out of a long consolidation it has support at 172 and resistances are at 193 / 197
Mcleod Russel has support at 254 and resistance is at 273.
Adani Enterprise is the stock to be kept on radar if it is able to trade above 637 then it may move up to 660-700 with support at 610.
Trade less, trade well
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Is it trend reversal ?
Is it trend reversal ? Well, its too early to say about it let market tell us with confirmation. But yes the signs of wekness are developing.
There are some good stocks which should on on radar for buying in dips.
Hitachi home has broken out with huge surge in volume Its trading at life time high.Some of the other peers from this segment like Blue Star, Whirlpool are also on the similar trajectory path.
Tata Motors have also zoomed above all its resistances and is trading at new highs.
OMCs stocks like BPCL and HPCL are making rounding bottom patterns on charts.
Wednesday, August 11, 2010
Cement Sector
Cement sector saw some momentum buying and most of the stocks from this sectors are coming out after a long consolidation with having formed multiple bottoms on charts.
Century Textile, ACC, Grasim , Prism Cement all have similar patterns.Rail stocks like Kalindee rail, Titagargh, Texmaco and Kernex are also climbing up steadily.
One can go long on dips in these sector.
Heidelberg cement has support at 48 and resistance at 57.
Kernex Micro system has support at 115 and resistance at 135.
keep volumes low, trade less, trade well.
Tuesday, August 10, 2010
Nifty at new high
Education related stocks like Educomp, Aptech, Everon etc showed momentum . Banking stocks which are driving the market along with select auto stocks showed upward traction.
The domestic consumption theme is still in focus with Jubilant food, Raymonds, Gitanjali Gems and IFB Ind .zooming past their previous resisatnces along with surge in volumes. These all stocks should be on ur radar and every dips should be used to buy these stocks.
Trade less , trade well
Thursday, August 5, 2010
Mid Cap IT stocks on Focus
Shipping sector outperformed as we discussed about a few days back. Essar Shipping, GE Shipping, MLL all have shown good momentum barring SCI which we liked. Well, that's what trading life is all about. The sector moved but the one stock which also had probability of moving up did not move up.But we were able to identify the sector move this itself is a learning.
Yesterday IT stocks moved up and now if the trend continues we may see action in Mid Cap IT space.
Polaris software has support at 175 and resistance at 191
3 I Infotech has support at 64 and resistance at 71
Wednesday, August 4, 2010
Be Stock specific
This market has become market of stocks instead of stock market.
Biocon has support at 314 and resistances are at 330 -334
Ruchi Soya has support at 104 and resistances are at 113-118
Tuesday, August 3, 2010
Will market scale new high ?
Cicero
Yesterday Nifty was managed regain its lost ground. Bank Nifty made a new high and now it stands at those levels which we saw in 2008.
Nifty has to close above its recent high of 5450-5477 then only it may have some upward momentum. Now the support for Nifty is at 5350.
Most of the Infra stocks have come out of consolidation zone with rise in volume also.
Era Infra has support at 210 and resistances are at 235 / 250.
Monday, August 2, 2010
Shipping Sector
SCI has support at 155 and resistances are at 168 / 173
Tata Chemical has support at 330 and resistances are at 345/ 355.
In banking space Andhra Bank has support at 138 and resistances are at 151 -155.
Wednesday, July 28, 2010
Be stock specific
Nifty has supports at 5350-5400 and resistances are at 5500-5550.
TVS Motor seems to be a good buy it has support at 124 and resistances are at 150-160
Monday, July 26, 2010
Momentum is expected to continue
Bata India has support at 270 and resistance at 309.
Deepak Fertilzer has support at 142 and resistance at 180
Friday, July 23, 2010
Nifty Breaks out
Now the supports are at 5350-5400 and resistances are at 5500 and 5550.
Bombay Dyeing has support at 510 and resistances are at 580-600.
JP Associate has support at 125 and above 133 it may retest 140-150
Tuesday, July 20, 2010
Nifty in range
Most of the action is in individual stocks and PSU Banks stocks are outperforming.
Central bank of India has support at 140 and resistances are at 160-165.
Bank Of Maharastra has support at 60 and resistance at 75.
Monday, July 19, 2010
Nifty set to trade in USA from today
What impact will it have on our markets ? Well, let'swait for some more time to see its impact.
Today markets may see gap down opening. Mid cap may continue to outperform.
But short term traders should keep Index stop of 5300 on closing basis for their long positions.
SRF has support at 240 and resistance at 290
Mothersons Sumi systems has support at 145 and resistance at 200
Friday, July 16, 2010
Sector Buzz : Textile
TCS came out with better than expected results this may augur well for Mid Cap IT space . If Rolta is able to trade above 185 then it could retest 200 with support at 180.
Nifty is finding support at lower levels and as long as 5300 is held it remains a buy on dip market.
Textiles stocks like SKumars, Crew Bos , BRFL yesterday had a Price and Volume breakout.
BRFL has support at 260 and resistance is at 300.
Guj Alkali has support at 125 and resistance at 150
Trade less, trade well
Thursday, July 15, 2010
Nifty may remain in a range for some time
TCS will come out with result today .
Exide Industries is a good buy on dips . It has support at 130 and resistance at 150.
Our earlier long term trading ideas like Castrol and Zydus wellness are out performing the broader market.
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Sector Buzz : Metal and Soft commodities.
Sugar futures rose for a second day in New York and London as Thailand repurchased the sweetener for the first time in more than 30 years, fueling speculation that demand will stay strong as buyers add to stockpiles.Sugar stocks being cyclic in nature are good long term bet.
Hindalco has support at 145 and resistances is at 165 .
United Phos. has support at 172 and resistances is at 196
Aptech has broken out with spike in volume it has support at 140 and resistances are at 160-170
Keep on booking profits as we move higher.
Tuesday, July 13, 2010
The Mental Aspect of Trading By Linda Bradford Raschke
Trading is a performance-oriented discipline and Intellect has nothing to do with your ability as a trader.
This is an useful article one can read it by visiting the link
http://www.traderslog.com/mental-aspect-of-trading/
Sector Buzz : NBFC
Mahindra and Mahindra Finance has support at 475-480 and resistances are at 550-580.
Tata Motors has support at 770 and resistances are at 823-855.
In mid cap IT one can also look at 3 I infotech with support at 63 and resistance at 75
Monday, July 12, 2010
The week ahead
Triveni Engr has support at 100 and resistances are at 120-127
Godrej Industries has support at 165 and resistances are at 200-220.
Trade less , trade well
Friday, July 9, 2010
Nifty is on the verge of breakout from a flag
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Tube investment
Tube investment has support at 108 and and resistance levels are at 135 and 150
Trade less, trade well
Sunday, June 20, 2010
Reliance Capital
Trade less, trade well
Friday, June 18, 2010
Nifty is on its way to retest its previous top
Meanwhile , our Ideas like JSW Energy has achieved its target .
PFC , Jindal steel and Power and Eveready looks interesting on charts . They have supports at 287,646 and 57 respectively and resistances are at 306, 740 and 74 respectively.
Wednesday, June 16, 2010
Market Rallis and continues
India info line has support of of 93 and resistance of 110 / 115
Friday, June 11, 2010
Global Rally : will it sustain?
Back home Nifty is trading in the range of 4950 -5150 with bulls defending the 5000 territory.
Nifty may see further upmove momentum only above 5150.
Will this rally result in another sell off ? Lets wait for the market to show its hand. IIP data, onset of Monsoon may augur well for the market.The volatility may continue . One should keep the volumes low.
JSW Energy is ready for another up move on charts.It has support at 116 and resistances are at 131 -150
Castrol has made a nice move . Time to ride the move.
Trade less, trade well.
Friday, June 4, 2010
Surge In Chinese and Indian Auto Industry
There is a report about Increasing Lubricant Demand .The report can be read at
http://www.klinegroup.com/reports/emailings/newsletters/energy/june2010/timely_trends.asp
Castrol can be put on radar . It has support at 380 and resistances are at 450-500. Its buy on dips
Canara Bank has support at 396 resistances are at 440-460-480
Thursday, June 3, 2010
Global cues will lift the sentiments
This volatility will continue for some more time.
Nucleus software has support at 130 and resistances are at 160 -170
Today is also a time to book profit in our earlier ideas : Dena bank and Nagarjuna Construction
Trade less , trade well.
Monday, May 31, 2010
Stock specific
Harrison Malyalam has support at 110 and resistances are at 132-14
Both these stocks had a long consolidation and may again continue with their primary up trend.However, one should keep quantity low .
Friday, May 28, 2010
A sharp recovery
Bank is a space to be in .
Dena Bank has support at 80 and resistances at 94-100.
Nagarjuna construnction has support at 180 and resistance at 190-200
Our one of the ideas Zydus Wellness is still outperforming the market.
Wednesday, May 26, 2010
Central Bank Independence, Transparency, and Accountability
At the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies International Conference, Bank of Japan, Tokyo, Japan
http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20100525a.htm
Wait and Watch
Lets watch from the side lines and wait for the dust to settle down. Nifty is trading below 4900 its below 200 EMA and its not a time to get in.
Protection of capital is also important.
Sunday, May 23, 2010
Is short covering round the corner ?
We are purely Technical in the sense that we follow charts only and Nifty did not close below 200 EMA.
As long as it remains above it bull market is intact. We will have bumpy ride ahead looking at global pictures but we may not tank down .
Jubilant Food has support at 250 and resistance is at 350
Tata Motor has support at 675 and resistance is at 760 .
ICICI bank can also be looked into.
Lets see how next week turns out to be but one thing is sure - any positive development on global front may result in short covering .
Tuesday, May 18, 2010
We are not out of woods: Market may remain volatile
Therefore, sometimes its wise to wait on side lines and wait for the clarity to emerge. Aggressive traders can wait for rallies to go short.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Time to book profit: We are not out of woods yet
Nifty is hovering around key resistance levels.
Let wait on sidelines with cash in hand for another opportunity.
Trade less, trade well.
Tuesday, May 11, 2010
Time to book part profit
Friday, May 7, 2010
How a technical error resulted in Dow Jones plunging 996 points
Be Greedy when others are fearful: Time to take plunge
This is the time to be brave and start buying .
One should look to pick up good stocks from Banking, IT, Auto , Pharma and Capital Goods sector.
HDF Bank, Yes Bank, Uco Bank, Tata Motors and select metal stocks like JSW Steel, Sterlite can be bought by taking advantage of this gap down opening.
Those who want to take less risks can buy Nifty Bees today and in every fall they should keep on adding.
These panics gives you opportunity to buy. We have been waiting on the sidelines with cash in hand for those dip.
Happy Hunting
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Time to revisit our earlier post:The World's Biggest Debtor Nations
Its time to revisit it:
http://swingtradingideas.blogspot.com/2010/04/worlds-biggest-debtor-nations.html
Environment has changed
Keep Banking stocks particularly Axis, Yes Bank, LIC HF , IT stocks and mid cap pharma stocks on your radar. Wait for the market to become stabilise. Metal sector will remain under pressure.
Not taking any position is also a position.
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
HPCL hits target: Volatility will continue
Market may remain volatile and choppy.
Yes Bank has support at 277 and resistance is at 300
Trade well and have fun
Monday, May 3, 2010
Sugar sector on radar - will it become sweet again ?
Lets us see how markets react to this development.
Back home the focus willl be on the next batch of Q4 earnings .
Sugar sectors has been hammered a lot and there are signs of recovery on charts. Kep the sector in focus with Dhampur Sugar and Balrampur Chini in mind.
Torrrent Pharma has started moving up from a long consolidation range. We have covered this stock along with FDC in our blong from time to time and both of them has given decent results.
Torrent Pharma has support at 500 and resistances are at 600-650.
Triveni has support at 105 and resistance at 125
Trade less,Trade well, Trade wise and have fun.
Friday, April 30, 2010
A Pull Back Rally
Back home we may also see a strong follow up.
Today we are discussing about two stocks which are a good short term as well as an invest buy for one year horizon.
We believe that Insurance Sector along with Health Care is Sun Rise industries. Insurance will also penetrate in rural areas once the big companies realize the great potential they have in the rural sector. UID, NREGA and a very simple approach of claim, record keeping and printing of Insurance forms in Hindi or other vernacular language will go a long way in tapping this yet another bottom of the pyramid market. Hope Insurance companies wake up to these realities soon as the present Insurance system is heavily tilted towards urban educated populace.
Max India can be a safer bet for long term from this sector. It has support at 170-175 and resistances are at 200-225 and 240.
Another sector is from leisure and hospitality. .
Country Club has support at 21 and resistances are at 33-38-45.
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Kovai Medical is up by 5 %
Time to be Cautious
This is time to lighten up, book profits and wait on the sidelines with some cash in hand. Keep your volume low and buy small quantity and be quick to book profit.Nifty has major resistance at 5350-5400.
Reliance Industries is attractive at these levels and one can also average it down if it falls further.
Going forward we may see volatile sessions ahead.
Kovai Medical has very intresting patterns on charts. Its peer Apollo Hospital is also doing well. In a lighter vein in this global financial turmoil Hospital sector will do well
Kovai Medical has support at 145 and resistance is at 175 / 200.
IDFC has support at 160 and resistance is at 175
Trade well, trade wise and have fun
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
NFL is up 5 %
ONGC Hits Target: Book Profit
Market may remain sideways
Nifty may remain sideways as it is trading near a major resistance zone. Most of the Q 4 results are already factored in. Therefore, Index heavyweight may also remain sideways.
Mid cap space may show some momentum .
Expectation of good monsoon augurs well for select fertilizer stocks.Graphite India is trading at new highs. Graphite is used as moderator in Nuclear Reactor Plants
NFL has support at 96 and resistance is at 126
Graphite India has support at 93 and resistances are at 120-130
Trade well, trade less and have fun
Monday, April 26, 2010
Let Greece Go Bankrupt: Jim Rogers
Sterlite is nearing first target : Book partial profit
Will Nifty breakout above 5400 ?
Corporate Earnings have been as per the street expectations and ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank also came out with more than expected results. This will keep momentum up in banking sectors.
Going forward global cues , market reaction to RIL numbers will be key in deciding whether Nifty is able to trade above 5400 ? Nifty will gain further upward momentum if it is able to trade above 5400.
This level is also an opportunity to get rid of trash stocks.
Banking, Oil and Gas, Infra and Capital goods are the sectors which may carry the momentum up.
JP associate has support at 153 and resistances are at 167-175.
Godrej Industries has support at 165 and resistances are at 185-190.
Sterlite has support at 785 and resistances are at 830-850.
Trade well
Saturday, April 24, 2010
Key Ingredients to Performing Your Best
2. Confidence. Top performance comes from having a high degree of confidence. You must have the confidence that you can take control and face adversity. You must also be confident that you will have a favorable outcome over time.
3. Concentration. Peak performance comes from exceptional CONCENTRATION. You must concentrate on the process, though, not the outcome. A sprinter who is in the lead is thinking about the wind on their face, how relaxed their arms are, feeling the perfect stride…they are totally in the moment. The person who does NOT have the edge is thinking, “Oh, that runner is pulling ahead of me…I don’t know if I have enough wind to catch the leader…” They are tense and tight because they are thinking about the outcome, not the process.
4. Resiliency. Great performances come from being able to rebound quickly and forget about mistakes.
5. Challenge. Great performance comes from pushing yourself and trying to overcome limitations. Staying in the safe zone becomes a monkey on your back. Challenge yourself to take that hard trade. Manage it. If it does not work out, so what…your risk was limited and you can pat yourself on the back for taking the hard trade in the first place.
6. See and DO don't think! Great performance comes from turning off the brain and becoming automatic. This is being in the Zone …in the groove. You can’t overanalyze the markets during the trading day.
7 Relaxation. When you are relaxed, your reflexes and timing are superior because you are loose.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
ONGC bounces back - Hits first target
Jayshree Tea has also hit its first resistance
Market seems exhausted
One should also look for shorting opportunities at higher levels.
Jayshree Tea has corrected a lot and it has support at 285 and resistances are at 305-314-322.
Ge Shipping can become a sell candidate only if it trades below 330 with stop of 340 for a target of 320-315
Trade well.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Book profit in Nagarjuna Construnction
One should book profit in Nagarjuna Construnction and wait on the sidelines for the market to show its hand.
Despite market expectation of RBI credit policies Bank stocks did not have a fancy run yesterday. Lets see if they get a follow up buying today.
Oil and Gas sector stocks may see some action today . ONCG is trading at crucial support of 998 and may bounce back to 1030- 1040.
Trade well, trade less and more important -- have fun !
Tuesday, April 20, 2010
Ngarjuna Construction Hits First target
We are not out of woods yet !
Monday, April 19, 2010
Goldman Could Trigger Market Correction: Jim Rogers
However, billionaire investor Jim Rogers, Chairman of Rogers Holdings, feels slightly differently.
You can read the full story at :
http://www.cnbc.com/id/36616382
Market may remain Volatile
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Principles of Peak Performance
The second principle of peak performance is confidence. in yourself, your methodology, and your ability to succeed. Some people are naturally born confident. Other people are able to translate success from another area in their life. Perhaps they were good in sports, music, or academics growing up. There's also the old-fashioned "hard work" way of getting confidence. Begin by researching and developing different systems or methodologies. Put in the hours of backtesting. Tweak and modify the systems so as to make them your own. Study the charts until you've memorized every significant swing high or low. Self-confidence comes from developing a methodology that YOU believe in.
Concentrate on the technical conditions. Have a clear game plan. Don't listen to CNBC, your broker, or a friend. You must do your own analysis and have confidence in your game plan to be a successful trader.
The third important ingredient for achieving peak performance is attitude. Attitude is how you deal with the inevitable adverse situations that occur in the markets. Attitude is also how you handle the daily grind, the constant 2 steps forward and 2 steps back. Every professional has gone through long flat times. Slumps are inevitable for it's impossible to stay on top of your game 100% of the time. Once you've dug yourself out of a hole, no matter how long it takes, you know that you can do it again. If you've done something once, it is a repeatable act. That knowledge is a powerful weapon and can make you a much stronger trader.
Most people react differently when they're under pressure. They tend to be more emotional or reactive. They tense up and judgment is often impaired. Many talented athletes can't cut it because they choke when the pressure's on. You could be a brilliant analyst but a lousy trader. Consistency is far more important than brilliance. Just strive for consistency in what you do and let go of the performance expectations.
If you admit to yourself that you truly don't have the will to win at this game, don't try to trade. It is too easy to lose too much money. Many people think that they'll enjoy trading when they really don't. It's boring at times, lonely during the day, mentally trying, with little structure or security. The markets are not a logical or fair playing ground. But there are numerous inefficiencies and patterns ready to be exploited, and there always will be.
Friday, April 16, 2010
Divergence Worked
Wednesday, April 14, 2010
Rally in Global Markets
Bull and Bear Markets
- Born on pessimism
- Grow on skepticism
- Mature on optimism
- Die on euphoria
- Born on recessions
- Grow on technical breakdowns
- Mature on eco-political nightmares
- Die on world-is-coming-to-an-end
Tuesday, April 13, 2010
Is gold ready to challenge its all-time high?
http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold412/
Flight to safety
Sunday, April 11, 2010
Ideas for the week
Its liquidity driven market so watch your steps.
keep your volumes low, follow stops and be quick to book profit.
For short term traders Nifty has supports at 5300-5320.
Some of the ideas for the week are :
Jai corp : Support 275 , resistance 315
Godrej properties : Support 520 , resistance 560
GSPL : Support 90 , resistance 104
Trade less, trade well and have fun
Saturday, April 10, 2010
The Mental Aspect of Trading by Linda Bradford Raschke
Trading is a performance-oriented discipline. Stress and mental pressures can affect your ability to function and impact your bottom line. Much of what has been learned about achieving peak performance in both business and sports can be applied to trading. But before looking at some of these factors, let's first examine the ways that trading differs from other businesses.
1. Intellect has nothing to do with your ability as a trader. Success is not a function of how smart you are or how much you have applied yourself academically. This is hard to accept in a society that puts a premium on intellect.
2. There is no customer or client good will built up each day in your business. Customer relationships, traditionally important in American businesses, have little to do with a trader's profitability. Each day is a clean slate.
3. The traditionally 8-5 work ethic doesn't apply in this business! A trader could sit in front of a screen all day waiting for a recognizable pattern to occur and have nothing happen. There is a temptation to take marginal trades just so a trader can feel like he's doing something. There's also the dilemma of putting in constant hours of research, having nothing to show for it, and not getting paid for the work done. Yet if a trader works too hard, he risks burn- out. And what about those months where 19 out of 20 days are profitable, but the trader gives it all back in one or two bad days? How can a trader account for his productivity in these situations?
4. If you were to invest time, energy, and emotion into developing a business venture and backed out at the last minute, it would be considered a failure. However, you should be able to invest time and energy into researching a trading idea, and yet still be able to change your mind at the last minute. Market conditions change, and we cannot be expected to predict all the variables with foresight. Getting out of a bad trade with only a small loss should be considered a big success!
What IS the definition of a successful trader? He should feel good about himself and enjoy playing the game. You can make a few small trades a year as a hobby, generate some very modest profits, and be quite successful because you had fun. There are also aggressive traders who have had big years, but ultimately blow-out, ruin their health or lead miserable lives from all the stress they put themselves under.
Next week we will discuss about peak performance ;
The first principle of peak performance is to put fun and passion first. Get the performance pressures out of your head. Forget about statistics, percentage returns, win/loss ratios, etc.
More in next week.
Have a nice weekend ahead !
Thursday, April 8, 2010
Price followed momentum
Our earlier idea Sunil high Tech has achieved target. one should book profit
Nifty is still in uptrend and these dips offer buying opportunities.
Cipla has support at 330 and resistance is at 355.
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
HPCL : A forgotten stock
As a trader we should look for these opportunities. Crude oil price had a non stop rally for more than a week and have reached 18- month high and are trading at major resistance area . We do not see a further upside on crude oil price on a short term basis. Any fall in crude oil price will prove beneficial for OMCs.
HPCL is trading near a major support area.It can be bought with a stop at 290 for a pull back level of 325- 340.
The World's Biggest Debtor Nations
Deficit spending, government debt and private sector borrowing are the norm in most western countries, but due in part to the financial crisis, some nations and economies are in considerably worse debt positions than others.
You can know about this by watching the slide presented by CNBC.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959/
Neyveli Lignite
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
Mid Cap Auto Sector on focus
On Nifty daily chart leading indicators are not making new highs while Nifty is at new high.Coming few session will show us what is in store. any way, its better to loose opinion than money.
Today Mid cap Auto stocks saw buying interest . Mid cap is the place where action is going to be .
Motherson Sumi Systems has support at 126 and resistances are at 145- 152 & 155.
Trade well and learn about the market tendencies .
Keep PSU banks on your radar
Bank of Maharastra has support at 48 and resistances are at 54- 59
HOEC has support at 227 and resistances are at 282-294 .
Monday, April 5, 2010
Nifty Breaks out on aTrend Day
Though Nifty made a new high but on charts momentum oscillators failed to make a new high.
Is it divergence or are we being the party spoiler ? Well , just a simple observation.
Prices are making a new high but oscillators are not making a new highs.
Just a time to be cautious when everybody is euphoric.
In light of the above we would bet on low risk opportunity.
NMDC of late has been thrashed a lot.
Its historic support is at 280 zone.Its recent support is at 290. Its trading in a narrow range between 290-300. A pull back can take it to 325 -340..
Iron ore prices are also firming up.
Trade less , trade wise .
Sunday, April 4, 2010
Ideas for the week
Friday, April 2, 2010
Linda Bradford Raschke On Indicators and Trading
You can watch her presentation on Technical Analysis and Trading
There are seven videos and you should start by watching Classic Indicators 1/7 and then watch 2/ 7 till you finish 7/7.
Hope you will use this long weekend to learn a brief history of TA.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsI2JxGx5Es
There is another video on Trading Education - Emotional Intelligence for Traders
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tdm0eXGq0PI&feature=PlayList&p=0E632E0829950F8E&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1
Have a nice weekend ahead.
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
Cairn and Torrent Pharma Hits Target
This stock is trading is at new high and is unlikely to face any resistance.
If you look at the chart you can see a clear uptrend.
This week is going to be a short one on account of holiday on Friday. Trade light with low volume as Nifty is trading near its resistance . We will watch the intermediate top of 5330 closely and will step up on long side only when Nifty trades above it for a few trading session.
Till then trade less and have fun
Tuesday, March 30, 2010
Fortis moves up : book partial profit
This weeks ideas Yes Bank, India Bull Real Estate and Cairn has also done well.
Trade well and have fun
Sunday, March 28, 2010
Our Ideas : Polaris Software, Mind Tree, Bio Con has done well
Now its time to book profit.Those of our ideas which have not done well did not hit our stops and at the most are ranged-bound.Overall on net - net basis we are in huge profit.
Saturday, March 27, 2010
Trading Psychology: Not Dead, Can't Quit, No Limit Thinking with Navy Seal Vet Richard Machowicz
For our weekend reading we are reproducing here Interview of Richard Machowitz navy seal future weapos interview.
The interview was taken by Larry Connors , an established trader and writer.You will find that what type of mindset is required for trading.
Richard Machowitz has written a book " Unleashing the warrior within : using the 7 principles of combat to achieve your goals."
The warrior knows if he chooses the weakest path,the only person he truly cheats is himself. -- Richard Machowicz, "Unleashing the Warrior Within".
We thought that we would provide a special interview for readers just in time for the Independence Day holiday weekend: Richard Machowicz.
Richard Machowicz is a 10-year Navy SEAL veteran and was a fighting instructor while he was with the SEALs. Machowicz is the author of Unleash the Warrior Within: Develop the Focus, Discipline, Confidence, and Courage You Need to Achieve Unlimited Goals.
He is also host of the wildly popular Future Weaponsshow on the Discovery Channel.
Here is how Larry Connors, who spent some time training with Machowicz, described the man in introductory notes before an interview back in November 2002:
"Richard is someone who has lived his life on the extreme edge of personal achievement and who has a philosophy that's the backbone of that achievement. Richard only moves in one direction and that is dead straight ahead. He's intense, extremely focused and highly intelligent. You only need to spend a few hours with him to know why major figures in the entertainment industry, business world and now an NBA team rely upon his training to help them achieve further success in their professions."
With that endorsement, TradingMarkets presents a real-life American Warrior: Richard "Mack" Machowicz. The interview was conducted with Larry Connors in the fall of 2002.
Larry Connors: Welcome, Richard. I have a number of questions for you, and our main focus in this interview will be on extreme achievement. Our members tend to be type A individuals, many of whom have been successful in a previous profession and are now trying to succeed in the trading industry, which is a very, very difficult game. It is an extremely mental game which has less to do with having the ability to get in and out of positions than being able to sustain losses and handle chaos in those positions. Most people can't handle it. The failure rate in the industry is high. And it's high with people who are incredibly intelligent. It also has to do with the fact that trading tends to be counterintuitive. That confuses people because they have previously succeeded by being intuitive and logical. Trading is just the opposite.
What we're going to try to do here is focus on achievement -- why people achieve great success -- not only in trading, but in all walks of life.
Richard Machowicz: Sounds great.
Connors: The main thing that people are interested in is the fact that you were a successful Navy SEAL. Let's talk about the extreme training process that one has to go through to become a SEAL. As I see it, it becomes a mastery over two things. The first thing is the mastery over the SEALs which is one skill set, and the other thing is the mastery over yourself, which is harder to do. Do you want to talk about that and take it from there?
Machowicz: Sure. What it takes to make it as a SEAL and to achieve extreme success in anything in life really comes down to one thing: How bad do you want it?
There are times when you think that the SEAL instructors are literally trying to kill you. You have to be able to generate the capacity to keep moving forward in spite of that fact. Or at least in spite of that belief. I think that's the real challenge, but I also think that it translates to everything you want to do really badly in life.
It's not some magic formula that's going to allow somebody to go after the thing they want to do. It's the consistent progress or moving toward the thing they want to do, regardless of whatever thing comes up -- and I call that thing "quitting." That quitting conversation will show up a hundred different ways. You can say, "This thing is bullshit. This thing is crazy. I can't believe I'm doing this." Or you can create things like, "Well, that person's just trying to hold me back," or "I'm just not good enough." Whatever... I'm telling you, quitting sounds very reasonable. Literally, it's a very simple process of getting on target and moving forward vs. the conversation that leads to quitting. And those conversations show up every day for people. And really, that's the battle. That's the war. If there's a war going on, really the war is within yourself and one you have to confront day after day.
The majority of people who get selected to SEAL training will quit, drop out or simply go away. You've got to be able to generate within yourself the mind frame that you must always be going forward. And you've got to want the thing bad enough to be willing to do anything to get there, regardless of and in spite of all the obstacles, in spite of all the hurdles, in spite of all the doubts that get in...the stress and the pain, you've got to keep going forward.
Connors: Is it necessary to have the mind frame to reach extreme goals that you are either going to achieve the goals or die? Because that seems to be the common characteristic for many people, such as Navy SEALs, who achieve extreme success. It's tough for somebody to sustain that type of mind frame, but is that the type of mind frame it takes to get there?
Machowicz: Well, it makes it very binary. You're either going forward and accomplishing or you're not. It's very clear under pressure, under stress, under doubt, under hesitation, under pain, under intense fear, to make that clear decision. You're either going forward toward it, or you're not. It gets all the excuses out of there.
I'm telling you: Quitting is very reasonable. I can have a million reasons to quit. But can you find the one reason to keep going forward? And literally, by saying, "Well, I'm going to keep going until I die." As long as you're still breathing, as long as you have a single pulse in your body, you can still go forward. I think it just makes it very easy to distinguish whether you're going forward or you're not.
Under stress and pressure, you think about the doubt... and it's just self doubt. I think everybody has self doubt. Everybody has those things that occasionally creep in. I don't care how strong you are. You've still got to be able to go one step further. And as long as you can breathe, you can still go one step further. You're not dead. And so I live by the axiom, "Not dead. Can't quit."
I got a quote that really drove me forward when I was trying to get ready for the SEAL team and getting ready for BUD/S. It's a six-month course and people get badly injured. We had four broken necks, broken legs, broken arms in the class. It's a severe, intense course. And they have this thing everybody knows about called Hell Week in which 80% of the participants fail. I think we had a class of about 140 people and eventually we finished with 23 or 24 people graduating. That's a significant drop off, especially considering the screening process you had to go through just to qualify for the class. I was like 150 lb. soaking wet at 6 ft. I was desperate to have some kind of advantage. Some kind of thing that would give me an edge. When it was going bad, I needed something to keep me going forward.
I was fortunate to have a friend whose brother had made it through SEAL camp. I didn't know the guy personally, but what happened was he sent me a picture. On the picture was his platoon jumping out of an airplane. It gave me a visual representation of what I wanted to be able to accomplish. But more importantly, when I turned the picture over, there was a quote. On the back of this picture was a quote that said, " A man can only be defeated in two ways: if he gives up, or if he dies."
That radically shifted where I was ever going to come from that day to the day I die. A man can only be defeated in two ways -- he gives up or he dies. I carried that quote with me until the ink disappeared off that piece of paper.
Connors: Great mind frame.
Your means of execution to achieve your goals is centered around a phrase you coined: "targets, weapons, movement." You choose your target, which is basically what you are trying to accomplish. This target will dictate what weapons you will use to achieve the target. And your movement will be based upon the weapons you will be using. I know this concept is new for many people who are reading this for the first time, so let's walk through it.
Machowicz: Yeah. I created this thing called the play dynamic for combat. Basically, it's: Targets dictate the weapons. Weapons dictate movement. As long as you are very clear on what your target is, you don't even have to think, and weapons will show up. You don't have to think and the appropriate movement will show up.
That way, you see the things that matter vs. all the things that don't. That's what we're competing for on a second-by-second basis, especially under stress and pressure. You're competing with all the information that doesn't matter vs. the specific information that does. And what happens is most people fixate on the minutiae that doesn't matter vs. the one laser point that will drive them to the thing they want to accomplish.
Let me give you a specific example: Let's say I'm coming directly at you to kill you. At that brief second, you have a target. And what is your target? You sure as hell better take me out. And the specific targets to take me out are my groin, eyes or throat. So depending upon which target you have chosen (groin, eyes or throat) will dictate which weapons you will use. For example, your knee for my groin, your hand for my throat, or your fingers for my eyes. And after you decide which weapons you will use, the movement becomes automatic. During that brief second of time, nothing else matters. It doesn't matter how you look. It doesn't matter if you're late for an appointment. I doesn't matter if somebody stiffed you for $20. That's all bullshit! The only thing that matters at that second is targets, weapons, movement.
Otherwise, you're dead.
Connors: The target applies to everything in life. For the SEALs, you guys went quickly into a foreign country to execute a mission. That mission became your target.
That's all that mattered. But that same focus applies to everything in life. I recently read an article by a professor from Harvard Business School. His research found that there is no formula to business greatness. There are, however, themes, and the number one theme was a clear mission. So essentially, the people who achieved greatness in their businesses had a clear mission. They had a clear target. And when it comes down to trading, it is the same thing. A clear target can be wanting to earn $1 million a year, or wanting to become the #1 hedge fund manager in the world. That becomes a clear target.
Machowicz: Yes, for sure. You just talked about big targets. I also categorize targets as primary and secondary... Once you get a target that big, I call it the mission. Inside of that mission, there have to be incremental targets. In other words, there is a target before the next target. I call that target the primary target which will, if you hit it and knock it down, set up the secondary target.
Connors: Give us some examples. Let's say we know what the ultimate target is, what the mission is. What are examples of the primary targets here within this mission?
Machowicz: In a SEAL team context, what is our mission? Let's say, we're supposed to do a kidnap, what they call a body snatch. In other words, we need to collect the general. We go to grab a specific person because that person has intelligence and we need to capture that person alive. That is the mission. There can then be literally a hundred or two hundred different targets inside that mission. Now all that matters is accomplishing the mission, but before you can accomplish the mission, you have to do planning. You make a target of setting up a good plan. In other words, creating a time, a very specific time frame where we've got to have a good plan by this time. Period. The end. Now that's the target. Now you start to break up little things. Ultimately, inside of a mission you have insertion -- you could be jumping out of an airplane or coming in by a boat or being inserted via submarine. Then you have infiltration -- the process of getting to the target, the main objective. And then you have the actions you do, what they call actions on the objective. What specifically are you going to do on the objective? Then you have to leave the objective and exfiltrate, in other words get out of that dangerous territory now that you've told everybody in the world that you're probably in that town --
Connors: So are these all targets on the way?
Machowicz: Yes, because if I started focusing on exfiltration before I actually got the guy, what are the odds of me being able to get the guy, or to actually infiltrate?
Connors: So it's one step at a time?
Machowicz: You've got to.
Connors: Let's talk about this in trading terms then. In trading terms, your first target would be to identify the setup. Then it would be to properly get into that setup. Then it's to properly put in your stops. Then from there it's to properly start taking profits on your position and move your stops. You're going one step at a time. You're not thinking about losing money or how you're going to spend the money or whether or not this is your third win in a row. You're not jumping ahead four steps -- your total focus is on simply executing the next step.
Machowicz: Exactly. Which helps you stay focused on the main target.
Connors: And it takes the chaos out of the situation.
Machowicz: Exactly! In other words, thoughts or feelings or things that don't belong get thrown by the wayside and only what is essential to accomplishing your overall mission is kept in the mix.
Connors: So targets dictate weapons; weapons dictate movement. We've talked about the targets, let's talk about weapons. How does this all work?
Machowicz: Really, when we talk about weapons, when I use it as a physical metaphor because usually I try to teach it through a physical metaphor, I want you to develop weapons that easily knock down the target without you getting hurt. And that's real important, for example, when you talk about using stops in your trading. Minimizing losses is one of the steps in helping you hit your target, and one of the weapons you use to do this is to use stops. What you're trying to do is use specific weapons to maximize a profit or maximize an income without putting yourself in major jeopardy.
Connors: Go further...
Machowicz: The weapons are... let's call it a skill set. The weapons could be skills, they could be strategies. They could be actual tools. They could be the technology you are using. It depends on how you're looking at it. What your target is. Again, it really depends on what your target is. But most likely it's skills or equipment, gear... whatever it is that helps you knock down the target. And movement is simply the act of making the weapon hit the target.
Connors: I see this a lot where traders will not pull the trigger on a trade... they have a movement problem. They have everything put together, they know they're supposed to take the trade, they know where the entry is and then when it comes time to pull the trigger, they won't do it. That's the movement you're talking about. They become paralyzed.
Machowicz: Well, that's what happens. Somewhere in this chain of "targets dictate weapons, weapons dictate movement," some place between target and weapon, the whole world can fit in there. When I say the whole world -- your whole world of doubt, second-guessing, hesitation, fear, the unknown. And the longer it takes for you to pull the trigger -- like you said -- the more that doubt, second-guessing, hesitation, pain and fear creep in to that mechanism
Connors: How do you get them to not creep in?
Machowicz: Go back to the target! Focus only on this one thing. Just ask yourself, "What is the target? What is the target?" This incredibly reduces the chaos and brings everything back into focus.
Connors: Always focus on the target.
Machowicz: Yes. And the second half of this is having guts.
What I like to do -- basically it's a really simple question. I do this thing called the "gut check." I was really trying to find out what it was going to take for me to be able to just really handle BUD/S and become a SEAL. What it was going to take for me? Was it going to be the kind of shorts I wore that would reduce chafing? Would it be some kind of socks I wore to reduce some of the chafing or maybe try and keep my feet warm? Was it going to be some kind of supplement that was going to help me? It turned out that all that stuff just was garbage. That didn't matter. The one thing that kept coming back to me when I would check in, trying to find out what that secret was, was you have to have guts. You've just got to have guts. I got the experience of learning what guts was by sticking through to the end. I got that visceral feeling of what "guts" was. So what I wanted to do was develop a very simple way so that you could get a "gut" check. If you could answer yes to these three questions, you have the guts you need to take on anything in life.
Connors: What are those three questions?
Machowicz: The first question is: Are you willing to make a choice?
Now, a lot of people make choices every day. They choose to watch TV, or to do something else, or they choose to be nice to somebody or they choose not to be nice to somebody. But rarely do they make a choice that would substantially improve the quality of their lives. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the person willing to play the game, and yes, a lot of people are willing to make choices. But when we come to the second question, we start losing people.
We probably lose half the people on the second question: Do you have the courage to start?
A lot of people talk the talk, but when it comes to walking the walk, they disappear. Really, that's it. Are you willing to step up and show up and get the work done?
Connors: Why do you think half the people stop?
Machowicz: I think people are afraid.
Connors: Why?
Machowicz: Why? Number one, I think people don't think they're good enough, for the most part. People think there's something inherently wrong with themselves.
Connors: Self doubt.
Machowicz: Yes, they just don't feel they're worthy. They're afraid to even try. They're so sure they're going to fail. They're so sure they're going to get screwed. They're so sure it's going to fall apart that they refuse to even show up in the first place.
Connors: How do you overcome that?
Machowicz: How? Recognize you don't even know what's going to happen. You do not know from second to second what is going to happen in your life. You've got an idea. You think you know. But the reality is what's going to happen ten seconds from now, you really don't know. What's going to happen an hour from now?
You really don't know. A year from now? You really don't know. That's the state, that's the condition of our lives.
Connors: So, if you don't try, you do know that you're not going to succeed.
Machowicz: But you know what? You didn't even have an opportunity. The mind doesn't want to even go there. It will just assume that it knows that you can't succeed, so it validates the fact that, guess what? "I know everything."
Connors: How do you trip the mind up to make it believe it will succeed?
Machowicz: I don't think you have to trip the mind up. I mean you can do that. You can short-circuit that process. You can use fear to manipulate you and drive you, but your results tend to be overblown and out of control. What I'm more interested in is seeing guys be able to say, "Listen, this is the target, and the fact of the matter is that I don't know if I can accomplish it or not, but I am going to try. I'm just going to go one step further, I'm going to go one little foot at a time, inch by inch if I have to. But I'm just going to keep going forward and stay connected to the target. Whatever that target is. I'm just going to take one more little tiny step, one more breath in that direction."
Connors: And the third question is...
Machowicz: Do you have the guts to finish? Do you have the guts to succeed at the mission you set out to achieve? Do you know what the only common
characteristic there is amongst the thousands of people who haven't made it through Hell Week?
Connors: What's that?
Machowicz: They quit.
Connors: So the things that you're teaching here are not just appropriate for Navy SEALs, they are appropriate for any walk of life, no matter what you're doing.
Machowicz: That's absolutely correct.
Connors: You've obviously been around extremely successful achievement-oriented people who have achieved extreme levels of success in their field, including your teammates in the SEALs. I've read that from application time to the finish of BUD/S only one in 6000 get through the process. So these are people who are executing at a level in life beyond what most people can comprehend. You also work directly with individuals who are professional athletes, top names in the entertainment industry and some very successful businessmen. If you could state a single characteristic, common theme, what would it be for their success?
Machowicz: A very clear target and perseverance.
When I look at the guys I've worked with that have been successful, the one thing I see consistently is the commitment to finish. Yes, they were willing to make a choice, they had the courage to start, but the thing that made the difference was the commitment to finish no matter what. Even if they were going to finish dead last, they were going to finish. I think that's the big thing. People do not finish what they start. A lot of people will start things but never see it through to the end.
Connors: These guys pick a target and are always moving forward to that target. Is that correct?
Machowicz: Absolutely. If you're at least going forward to the target, you're always moving forward in your world. And that's the most important thing. You have one life. You've got to play it full out. If you play it half-assed, if you play it partially, I'm telling you, on your deathbed, you'll be wondering why you ever were born.
Connors: Going back to the SEALs, had that become the mind frame, you'd be killed, you'd be out immediately?
Machowicz: Oh, yeah, I mean what happens is -- Vince Lombardi had a great quote, "Fatigue makes cowards of us all." Literally, what happens with BUD/s, you will have work that will have mentally and physically fatigued you to the point where you only have to blink for a second, when you're on your third or fourth day of
Hell Week, and you're freezing cold and you're miserable and you just saw three other people quit. You only have to have one moment... it only takes you 30 seconds to quit, and you've destroyed all that time that you've put in. You lose sight of the target, and it is over.
One of the things I did early during Hell Week was I would say, "Well, I made it through one evolution, I can make it through one more. I made it through two. I can make it through one more. I made it through three, I can make it through one more. If I made it through four evolutions, I can make it through one more. If I made it through four, I could probably do another four. If I did eight, I could probably do another eight. Oh, I've got one day down, let me try another day. I got two days down, I bet I can do one more day. I got three days down. You know what? I know I can do three more days."
Just let it go. And next thing you know, you start building this motor of momentum, this engine of momentum that just keeps driving you forward, keeps driving you forward, keeps driving you forward. Because I'm telling you, that conversation is not a conversation you're going away from. That is a conversation of moving forward. And moving forward toward a target that you set for yourself and refusing to quit. People say, "refuse to lose." I say "refuse to quit." Recognize the dialogue that leads to quitting and you won't have to worry about losing.
Connors: Paul "Bear" Bryant's famous quote, "The first time you quit it's hard, the second time is a little easier, and the third time you quit, you don't even have to think about it."
Machowicz: Perfect.
Connors: You talk about this in your book. Act as though it is impossible to fail.
Machowicz: Act as though it is impossible to fail. If you are doing these things, if you are clearly on your target, if you are persistent and committed to finishing and you are really committed to results vs. reason, you will succeed. Success is not some magic mystery out there. It is clear connection to the target.
Connors: Let me go back and ask you a question regarding chaos. During your combat missions, your life was very much on the line. If something goes wrong, you're dead. How do you eliminate the stress of that knowledge?
Machowicz: Stay focused only on the target, that's how!
Connors: And they teach you that in the SEALs? They teach you how to --
Machowicz: It's not even "teach," it's just "stay focused." What is the target? You may have to ask yourself that moment to moment. What do I have to do now?
What's the target now? This moment, this moment, this moment...
Always come back to the target. I can't stress that strong enough. I don't care what's happening...the universe could be falling apart around you. As long as you keep going, "What's the target? What do I have to do right now? What's the target right this second?" The results will take care of themselves. And to the outside world it will look like nothing ever phases you.
Connors: Summarize your message to us.
Machowicz: A single-minded focus on hitting the target and never quitting. It worked for me in my 10 years with the Navy SEALs, it works for the professional athletes I work with, and it works for the other successful people I work with. Live with the mind frame, "Not dead. Can't quit."
Connors: Thank you, Richard.
Machowicz: My pleasure. Thanks for having me.