LUPIN : Is the correction over ?

Lupin has consolidated on daily charts and it closed above the previous week high. If it is able to close above 466 then it will be two week high closing for this stock.On the backdrop of sectoral tail wind this stocks may move higher to its resistance levels of 480-498. It has got multiple support at 445
Trade less, trade well

Merry X mas

Nifty was bale to able to regain 6000 on the last day of the week.
There are a very few sectors that are taking the Nifty up.
From the pharma pack Sun Pharma, Orchid Chemicals  and Bio Con looks strong on charts.
Tata Chemicals and Nagarjuna construction seem to have bottomed out.
Mid cap space is showing lots of buying interest and some of the fallen hero like Crew Bos, Hanung Toys etc may show some more upside from here.
Tata Chemical has support at 380 and res are at 416/ 425

Food Inflation :

We posted on our blog earlier in November that food inflation is here to stay.
http://swingtradingideas.blogspot.com/2010/11/food-inflation-is-here-to-stay.html

Yesterday these factors coupled with some more internal factors resulted in lackluster session. As far as Nifty is concerned 6070 remains a major hurdle. On charts Nifty is making  lower top . On the other hand 5900-5950 remains strong support.
Orchid Chemical looks strong on chart and so does Vijaya Bank. But overall Banking sector is not performing  therefore, sectoral tail wind is not there for Vijaya Bank but its a buy on dip stocks.
Pharma  and IT sector may remain isolated from rising inflation and Interest rate worries .

Metal Sector outshines : Bhushan Steel

The sectors which we described earlier moved as per the probability we foresaw.
Bhushan steel seems to coming out of consolidation and has potential to move up to 490 - 500.
On LME Copper is making new high . Sterlite has  a very choppy chart . It has multi support at 160  and 180-190 is resistance zone.
As far as Nifty is concerned the level of 6070 is very important. Once it trade above this level for  few session then only we can see some more upside.

IT, Oil and Gas, Metal & Phrama may provide support to the broader market.

Last week though truncated saw Nifty having a positive closing supported by IT, Metal and Oil  & Gas sector.
We believe these sector may provide support to Nifty. Nifty has a stiff pivot resistance at 6070. Once it is able to trade above this level then only we can expect some more upside to 6150-6200 lvl\s.
Aurbindo Pharma is poised to make a new high.TCS and Infosys may surprise us on upside.

Will Reliance provide leadership in 2011.

Markets are inching back to upward resistance levels with lots of worry in short term which may result in some volatility.
Metals stocks have done well in the recent pull back. Reliance has provided support to the Indices. Banks are still under performing. Will Oil and Gas , Infra and Metal will provide leadership in next bull run ? We will be tracking these sectors closely .
Will Reliance provide the leadership in the next year? Is has multi support at 900-950 and stiff resistance at 1140-1150.
We are also presenting here the monthly chart of Reliance.

Time to sip coffee

Markets are still volatile but Nifty managed to close above 100 EMA amids lots of news flow both positive and negative.Resistances are at 5930-5950 and supports are at 5800-5850.

In this recent carnage some of good stocks got hammered for no apparent reason . They have corrected to 200 EMA and now are showing resumption of uptrend.
Tata Coffee  CCL are some of the stocks one should consider. Tata coffee has good support at 480 and resistance at 590.
Small PSU banks like UCO bank , Vijaya Bnaks are showing good buy patterns on charts.

Nifty may trade in a range and action may shift to individual stocks .

Trade less, trade well

We are not out of woods yet

Yesterday Nifty pulled back to 6000 levels.But the Euro zone problem is still showing no sign of being resolved for some more time . Therefore,  market may remain volatile in short term  with biases on downside. Nifty may correct to 200 EMA which is at 5500 and 5550 was the breakout level of this up move  which terminated at 6330 . Nifty may restest this breakout level of 5550
From here two probability emerge:
1 Market may pull back to recent high and then correct
2 market may correct from here and then pull back to recent high and make new high .
Either way a correction is inevitable and healthy for the market and after a decent correction we will see new high.
Consumption story will play on .  TTk Prestige, Jubilant Food, Bata, VIP, Amar Remedies, Titan , Uflex , Orchid Chemicals should  be on your radar and  correction should be used to buy these stocks.

History Of Nifty Corrections

Nifty is in correction mode. If we go by the history of Nifty it has tendency to correct to 200 EMA . It has done so many times .It has traded below 200 EMA and then bounced back. We are presenting below Nifty daily chart:

Nifty is trading below 50 EMA and you can see it has breached a short term trend line . As per dow theory now the next support is at 5930 which can also be taken as Pivot. If you look at the chart the support area as per the candles is around 5900. If Nifty is unable to trade above 5900 then it may retest 200 EMA.

You can also see that in recent past it has traded below 200 EMA and then bounced back. Therefore, looking at the history one should be prepared for this eventuality. If Nifty on any day closes below 5900 then one should exit from all long positions . At present global and domestic environment are not conducive for a sharp upside . Food inflation is here to stay despite the tightening measures being taken by all the Central Banks. One of the major culprit for this is the climate change which is resulting in fickle weather, untimely rains. Of late , rains in Maharastra has led to sharp rise in onion price. The flooding in Pakistan and Thiland has caused  rice price shooting up .

Videocon and Lupin

Videocon  Ind has mad a multi bottom at 258 and has developed a range at upper prize band being at 270.Traders should watch for  breach of either of these levels .
Lupin has had a closing at life time high and is poised to move higher from here

Tata motors and Amar

Tata Motor has come out with better than expected results.The JLR has once again helped it to improve the margins. The stock is trading at all time high and may again move up and is a good long term buy.
HUL has also trading at ten year high.

There is another stock which trading at life time high and has a very strong pattern on chart. Amar Remedies is slowly and steadily climbing up with strong volume.
We believe from here on market is going to be stock specific. Stock selection is going to be key . Watch out this space for stock ideas.

Happy Diwali

We wish a very Happy Diwali to all our readers.
Markets has already given us reason to celebrate the festival of light.
One should look for Domestic Consumption story as a theme for this year.
We will discuss about it more in coming days.
Nifty has zoomed once it crossed past 6150 , the level which we were talking about for the past one week.

Trade well and trade less

Shipping Sector

 As we expected yesterday Nity had a flat session but shipping sector as a whole zoomed and came out of troubled water with GE Shipping cruising ahead of all. MLL and SCI also followed it. Now for GE shipping the pivot is 340 and if it can retest it then its a good buying area. For initiating long at this stage 340 is support and resistance is at 400.

Some fertilizer stocks also showed upward traction. Manglore Chemical and Fertilizer has support at 41 and resistance at 50-55
Today Nifty may trade above 6150 and if it closes above 6150 then we may see it facing hurdles at 6230-6250
Trade less , trade well

Food Inflation is here to stay

RBI is once again in dilemma over the rate hike . It is on the one hand worried about rising food inflation and on the other hand its  also worried  slowness of growth.
Well, in my opinion it would be a difficult task to tame the rising food inflation. Despite the good monsoon what we are facing globally is fickle and erratic rain fall. In our county we had floods in UK, Punjab which affected paddy crop . We had drought in Bihar and had scanty rainfall in some parts of the country. The area under agriculture is getting reduced day by day and after the Green Revolution there has been no serious efforts to increase the productivity.
Irony of this rising inflation is that the farmers are still not getting the benefit of  higher food price . We will talk about it in detail in some other time.

Today market may remain flat and volatile ahead of the key events.
Keep HDFC and BPCL on your radar.

ICICI Bank

ICICI Bank was up more than 6 % on last trading session on the back of better than expected Quarterly result. This stock has now support at 1105 and resistances are at 1245-1275 and 1300.
Bajaj Auto has support at 1480 and resistances are at 1540-1580 and 1615.This stock is coming out of downward sloping channel and has consolidated a lot.

If Nifty is able to trade above 6150 then we may see some more upside provided RBI credit policy and Fed QE goes well with the market.
Nifty has got supports at 5930-5960 and resistances are at 6150.

Trade less, trade well.

Nifty : Head and Shoulder

We had posted on this blog about our downward biases on Nifty. Though  yesterday market had a volatile session but at the end Nifty had a weak closing.
On daily chart Nifty is making head and shoulder formation and the neck line is around 5950-60. If this neck line is broken and FIIs inflow dries up or some money is taken out then there is hardly any support from Domestic front.
The target for Nifty if the neck line is breached comes around  5650-5700.
One should remain cautious and should wait for the reversal in trend.

Aviation Sector: Jet Airways and KFA.

Yesterday Nifty tanked down Now the main pivot is at 5966. If Nifty is unable to trade above this level then traders should exit from all short term positions.Nifty is ranged and its boundaries are 5960-6150.
Market can not remain in this range forever . It has to come out of this range at present the biases are on downside.If 5960 is taken out then we may see 5800 also.

Aviation sector as a whole stood the onslaught which was witnessed yesterday. Jet Air, King Fisher Airlines and Spice Jet saw jump in price with surge in volume. Our swing trading ideas Arvind Mill also outperformed.
King Fisher Airline has got support at 79 and resistance at 86-90.

Trade less, trade well

Banks outshine again

PSU Banks are outperforming in this ranged market.
Dena bank had a spectacular closing yesterday with large volume and this stock can be accumulated at every dip.
Crew BOS has support at 185 and resistance is at 230. This stock also closed at new high.
Textile sector is another space which is outperforming the broader market. Keep Arvind  Mill on your radar.
Markets may remain volatile on the back of future and options expiry.
Nifty has support at 6030-6050 and resisatnce is at 6150

PSU banks as a sector outperforms

Banking space is the one space where one is going to make money consistently.

Andhra bank, Allahabad bank, Canara Bank all are trading at new highs and any dip should be used to buy.


Karur Vyasya Bank has come out of consolidation and may face resistance at 590-610


Trade less, trade well

Canara Bank and Central Bank zooms

Yesterday we talked about Canara bank and Central Bank and both of them performed well. Though market also supported the move but nonetheless both of them had a very good chart pattern.

Markets had a smart rally yesterday. Some of stocks made a new high after a  long consolidation.

Bhushan Steel and United Phos are the two stocks which saw a sharp run up to new highs .

Bank of India has also seems to have resumed its uptrend.

Volatilty may continue

As we have previously discussed that Nifty is in correction phase and the correction is not over. Volatile session will be witnessed and its very difficult to trade Index future during this phase. Pivot supports are at 5963 and 5930. Nifty is weak as it is trading below 20 EMA.

Canara Bank, Central bank, Dwarkesh Sugar, Castrol  looks good on chart . One should trade with small quantity and most of your money should be in cash  so as to take advantage of better prices and to avoid getting whipsawed in these turbulent times.

Smart recovery but the correction is not over

Yesterday  Nifty bounced back from key support levels but the correction is far from over . It needs to close above 6180 .Going forward Nifty may remain volatile as result season kiks in and may trade in a range.

Bank of India can be bought on intraday basis with stop of 524 and possible target of 538-550.


There are some stocks which are in correction mode but may come out of it and resume uptrend. Mcdowel, Exide and SRF fall into this category. Keep them on your radar . Of these three SRF looks strong on charts.

Nifty is at support level : Textile Sector in Focus

Nifty is trading at crucial support levels. Liquidity may tighten up  a bit on the back of Coal India IPO  but 5960-6030 are support areas.We may see  a pull back to 6150-6180 levels
Textile stocks as a sector has shown momentum build up.Garden Silk, Raymond, SKumars are good bet.
 Arvind has support at 47 and resistances are at 60-62.
Uflex has support at 290 and resistance at 350.

Shipping Stocks Zoom

Yesterday shipping sectors saw momentum on the back of short covering and initiation of some long positions.

Though most of the stocks have been trading in  a range GE shipping may break out of the range . The upper part of the range is at 325 and once it trades above it then it may zoom to 340-350.

Bank of India  and M & M closed at life time high and they become a buy on dips stocks.

Oriental Bank of Commerce has support at 448 and resistances are at 476-500.

Berger Paint

Nifty showing somecsign of tiredness and frontliners are also showing pause .

Welcorp has support at 255 and resistances are at 275-280

Berger Paint  has support at 106 and resistances are at

123-130

TCS and Crew BOS

With the current momentum we are discussing here a few swing trading ideas for the week.






TCS has support at 920 and resistance at 958  
Axis Bank has support at 1460 and resistance at 1570

Crew BOS has support at 163 and resistance at 185


Godrej consumer has support at 390 and resistance at 470



Trade less, trade well

HUL comes out of 9 year trading range

Every bull  market has new leaders. This bull market is also led by the new leaders.
Hindustan Uni Lever has been trading in  a range of 126-306 for the past 9 years. It has broken out of this range in the tenth year. It has done so on the back of huge volume.Now this stock is in no resistance zone and from here it may go even further and immediate target is 400-450.
This stock also made a  all time high of 323 in the year 2000. One should buy this stock on every dip.

We are presenting below the yearly chart of HUL .

There are some other stocks  who fall into this category. ITC is also trading  at life time high.

Oil Marketing Companies BPCL, HPCL, IOC are also trading at multi year high . Some other stocks are SBI, Tata Motors , M & M , HDFC Bank, HDFC, Infosys , TCS and Axis Bank.

These all are front line stocks which are providing leadership to the current rally.
These are the new leaders of this bull run

Nifty at resistance

After having run up sharply Nifty is now facing hurdles at higher levels.It has support at 5800.
Meanwhile , stock specific action is seen.
Lupin had  closed at life time high and every pull is an buying opportunity. 370 is support area and it can touch 450 on higher side

PTC and PFC have also resumed their uptrend after corrections. PFC has support at 330 and resistance at 360. PTC has support at 110 and resistance is at 130.

Trade lesss, trade well.

APIL

Nifty is still showing strong momentum. Stocks from the strongest sectors like Bank, Auto, Oil and Gas are still gaining grounds.

APIL has support at 755 and resistances are at 804- 840.

Trades less, trade well

Life at 5860

Nifty  has had a non stop rally for the last ten day , usually going by history the maximum continuous up days are limited to 7-9- 10 and 13 days before the rally stops.Therefore, its time to tighten your seat belt, take money off the table and wait for low risk opportunity.Nifty has now strong base at 5400 and 5550-5600 can be retested.
Bank Nifty has been the leader and it has not made new high for the past two days.Time for correction ? Well, if it closes below 11900 then only we may see some weakness creeping in.

Our list of momentum stocks which we discussed on this blog on 5th September has outperformed the broader market.

Andhra Bank and Ipca Lab

 "It is incredible how rich you can get by not being perfect."

Nifty is all set to make new high. The momentum is strong so ride it.

Andhra Bank has support at 152 and resistances are at 167-175

Ipca Lab   has support at 290 and resistances are at 327-350
Trade less, trade well

Nifty breaksout but 5680 is stiff resistance

Yesterday  Nifty made a new 31 month high on the back of better job Data from US. European markets also surged up after the summer vacations .
We talked about importance of RIL in our previous post and yesterday RIL provided support to Nifty.RIL is now taking support at 900-920 zone and this area provides opportunity for some bottom fishing. Similarly Sterlite has multiple support at 150 zone and this can be considered as good buying zone.

Nifty has now support at 5480-5515 and resistances are at 5680. Going forward in short term upward seems limited and instead of getting euphoric  about this breakout one should think of taking money off the table and wait for some low risk opportunities to enter again.

GSPIL and IOB

Nifty last session on Friday activities in Rice stocks and Fertilizer stocks. Stocks like Lt Food, KRBL, Kohinoor, Deepak Fertilizer , NFL, RCF saw price volume breakout .
Nifty may trade in range with upward biases.

Tube Investment is a buy above 133 with stop of 125 and resistance at 150.

GSPL  is a buy above 119.50 with stop of 115 and resistance at 130.

IOB has support at 129 and resistances are at 140-155.


Trade less, trade well

Momentum stocks

Nifty is trading in a range though September has traditionally been a lackluster month and bottoms are usually made in October month we can expect a ranged bound market ahead.

This weekend I reflected on mid cap theme which is the area where smart money is pitching in and offers money making opportunities for traders. These mid cap stocks are also showing  tremendous strength as they come back from the retracement sharply and make new highs.
Let us discuss these stocks
Banking sector has been the leader  but there are stocks like Central Bank, Corporation Bank and Karur Vysa bank which are very showing good momentum.There  are other stocks like State Bank of Travancore, State bank of Bikaner, State Bank of Mysore ; all these stocks are up on the back of merger news with SBI  but they have run too fast .

The other group is Consumer Durables where Videocon Ind  Bajaj Electicals Hitachi Home, VIP, IFB ,  Panasonic, Whirlpool are showing momentum.

Another category is auto , auto ancillary and Bicycle stocks.  Escorts, VS Motor,Atlas, Hercules, Motherson SS, Suderram, Asahi Glass,  Exide , Amar raja Battery Castrol, Auto Ind , Apolo Tyre, Ceat and JK Tyre  are zooming .
Wellness stocks like Zydus Wellness, Talwarkers are also good bet .

Mid Cap pharma Like Amar Remedies ,Wockpharma Ajanta, Natco, FDC  is another space
Stocks and allied like Ruchi Soya, Jubillant Foods, Venkeys are also food for thought .

Travel and leisure stocks like Cox and kings, Thomas cook is another space to look for.

There are some stocks like  Hanung , Bata India , IGL, Vguard , Deepak Fertlizer , Tata Chem, GSPL, Petro net , Godrej properties and DCM which are trading in a new territory.

How to trade these stocks ?
The best way to but these stocks is during dips/ corrections. keep them on your radar or make a watch list.

A furious global rally

Yesternight rally in all across the global market will make Nifty to once again regain 5500. The major support of 5350 was held and the re bounce from those level  may hit the wall again at 5550. Yesterday RIL moved up it it is able to have a Technical bounce the  Nifty may trade at new highs.
At present every dips seems to buying opportunity.

Crompton Greves has support at 296 and resistance is at 350.

On mobile has support at 320 and resistance at 350-360.

Trade less, trade well.

We may trade in range again?

Nifty bounced back from major support area of 5350 yesterday. going forward 5480-5520 are key resistance areas.Those are good areas to go short on Nifty with stop at 5550.

Auto, FMCG and select pharma stocks  bounced back. One should trade on the long side with low quantity as we are not out of woods yet.

Dr Reddy has formed multiple bottom on char and 1320 is major support  while 1360-1370 is stiff resistance if the stocks is able to trade above the resistance areas then it may go up to 1410-1430.


M & M has support at 610 and resistances are at 637-646-657.

Nifty is at 5400 and RIL the heavy weight is at new low. Had Reliance participated in this rally then imagine where Nifty would have been ! 

Nifty is in short term downtrend

Yesterday Nifty tried to trade above 20 EMA but failed to recapture it . Today it may trade below 50 DMA .
Its in short term downtrend and resistances are  at  5450- 5480 and supports are at 5300-5350.

On the up side Hotel Stocks may see some interest on the back of EIH and RIL deal.
EI Hotels  has support at 137 and resistances are at 172-200.

Jim Rogers is bullish on Agri Commodities and Gold

Rogers is bullish on the agricultural commodity space.He siad it on CNBC




"There are 3 billion people in Asia, and most of them had not had a very good standard of living in the past 100 or 200 years. That's changing and changing very rapidly. They're going to eat more, they're going to wear more clothes…so agriculture is going to do very well."
 
 
You can read in detail :
 
http://www.cnbc.com/id/38913263

Trading in the zone : Mark Douglus

Mark Doulus in this book elaborates about  getting  consistent performance ;

CREATING A BELIEF IN CONSISTENCY


Creating a belief that "I am a consistent winner" is the primary objective, but like my intention to

become a runner, it's too broad and abstract to implement without breaking it down into a step-by-step

process. So what I'm going to do is break this belief down into its smallest definable parts and then give

you a plan to integrate each part as a dominant belief. The following sub-beliefs are the building blocks.

Thinking Like a Trader blocks that provide the underlying structure for what it means "to be a

consistent winner."



I AM A CONSISTENT WINNER BECAUSE:

1. I objectively identify my edges.


2. I predefine the risk of every trade.


3. I completely accept risk or I am willing to let go of the trade.


4. I act on my edges without reservation or hesitation.


5. I pay myself as the market makes money available to me.


6. I continually monitor my susceptibility for making errors.


7. I understand the absolute necessity of these principles of consistent success and, therefore, I


never violate them.

Most of the global markets are trading below 200 DMA

Most of the global markets including the big brother Dow Jones are trading below 200 DMA. Will our market follow them ? Well, only time will tell but at present 5450 is a crucial support.

There are some stocks which are very good on charts and every dips should be used to buy them.
Zydus wellness and Castrol we have talked about them many times are still in long term uptrend .
Similarly Bajaj auto and TVS Motor.


Tvs Motor has support at 140 and resistanc at 160-170 .
Pirmal health has support at 505 and resistance at 540-547

Stock specific action

Tata Global ( formerly  Tata tea )has given  a breakout with good volume.
It has support at 111 and resistances are at 125-130.

Polaris software ( though the sectoral tail wind is not supporting ) has support at 169 and resistances are at 190-195.

Mid Cap Ideas

Some of mid cap ideas for the week based on chart patterns are being shared with you.

BajajElectriclas has made a life time high and it has support at 251  and  resistance at 300.

Sunderam fastener has support at 57 and resistance at 72.

Lakshmi vilas bank has support at 115 and resistance at 150


Trade less, trade well

Mid Cap may continue to outperform .

Nifty is still stuck in range. banking sectors stocks are the flavour of the season.
Mid cap may  continue to outperform.

Prakash Industries has come out of a long consolidation it has support at 172 and resistances  are  at 193 / 197

Mcleod Russel has support at 254 and resistance is at 273.


Adani Enterprise is the stock to be kept on radar if it is able to trade above 637 then it may move up to 660-700 with support at 610.

Trade less, trade well

Happy Independence Day

We wish all the readers of this blog a very Happy Independence Day


Jai Hind

Is it trend reversal ?

Yesterday Nifty showed some sign of weakness in the last hour of trading session.Nifty futures also traded in discount. Going forward 5300 is a crucial support. This level is also the last week low for Nifty. If Nifty is not able to close above it then all short term  long trades should be squared off.

Is it trend reversal ? Well, its too early to say about it let market tell us with confirmation. But yes the signs of wekness are developing.

There are some good stocks which should on on radar for buying in dips.

Hitachi home has broken out with huge surge in volume Its trading at life time high.Some of the other peers from this segment like Blue Star, Whirlpool are also on the similar trajectory path.
Tata Motors have also zoomed above all its resistances and is trading at new highs.
OMCs stocks like BPCL and HPCL are making rounding bottom patterns on charts.

Cement Sector

Nifty as per its predictable pattern for the last  few months again faced resistances at higher levels.
Cement sector saw some momentum buying and most of the stocks from this sectors are coming out after a long consolidation with having formed multiple bottoms on charts.
Century Textile, ACC, Grasim , Prism Cement all have similar patterns.Rail stocks like Kalindee rail, Titagargh, Texmaco and Kernex are also climbing up steadily.

One can go long on dips in these sector.

Heidelberg cement has support at 48 and resistance at 57.

Kernex Micro system has support at 115  and resistance at 135.

keep volumes low, trade less, trade well.

Nifty at new high

Yesterday Nifty closed at new high with support from global markets.
Education related stocks like Educomp, Aptech, Everon etc showed momentum . Banking stocks which are driving the market along with select auto stocks showed upward traction.

The domestic consumption theme is still in focus with Jubilant food, Raymonds, Gitanjali Gems  and IFB Ind .zooming past their previous resisatnces  along with surge in volumes. These all stocks should be on ur radar and every dips should be used to buy these stocks.


Trade less , trade well

Mid Cap IT stocks on Focus

Nifty did show sign of breaking out yesterday but to use the cliche now very common " Its still in range"

Shipping sector outperformed as we discussed about a few days back. Essar Shipping, GE Shipping, MLL all have shown good momentum barring SCI which we liked. Well, that's what trading life is all about. The sector moved but the one stock which also had probability of moving up did not move up.But we were able to identify the sector move this itself is a learning.

Yesterday IT stocks moved up and now if the trend continues we may see action in Mid Cap IT space.

Polaris software has support at 175 and resistance at 191

3 I Infotech  has support at 64 and resistance at 71

Be Stock specific

Nifty is still stuck in range . At this juncture the upside seems limited therefore one should trade light.

This market has become market of stocks instead of stock market.

Biocon has support at 314 and resistances are at 330 -334

Ruchi Soya  has support at 104  and resistances are at 113-118

Will market scale new high ?

.“The wise are instructed by reason, average minds by experience, the stupid by necessity and the brute by instinct”


Cicero



Yesterday Nifty was managed regain its lost ground. Bank Nifty made a new high and now it stands at those levels which we saw in 2008.
Nifty has to close above its recent high of 5450-5477 then only it may have some upward momentum. Now the support for Nifty is at 5350.
 Most of the Infra stocks have come out of consolidation zone with rise in volume also.

Era Infra has support at 210  and resistances are at 235 / 250.

Shipping Sector

Nifty is still trading in a range though some sectors are seeing momentum picking up. Shipping sector saw some action in last trading session. Ge Shipping, Essar Shipping, SCI all are coming out of long consolidation.

SCI has support at 155 and resistances are at 168 / 173

Tata Chemical has support at 330 and resistances are at 345/ 355.

In banking space Andhra Bank has support at 138 and resistances are at 151 -155.

Be stock specific

Nifty has rallied up after the much awaited RBI credit policy.
Nifty has supports at 5350-5400 and resistances are at 5500-5550.

TVS Motor seems to be  a good buy it has support at 124 and resistances are at 150-160

Momentum is expected to continue

Market may see continuation of momentum. Nifty has supports at 5400 and resistances are at 5500-5550

Bata India has support at 270 and  resistance at 309.



Deepak Fertilzer has support at 142  and resistance at 180

Nifty Breaks out

Nifty has come out of the range it has been trading for the past five days.
Now the supports are at 5350-5400 and resistances are at 5500 and 5550.

Bombay Dyeing has support at 510 and resistances are at 580-600.

JP Associate has support at 125 and above 133 it may retest 140-150

Nifty in range

In our earlier post we emphasized on Nifty trading in range for  a few trading sessions. This is what happening these days. Nifty is trading in  a tight range of 30-50 point. Markets do  not trade in  a range for  longer time. Sooner or later it will break up/ down in any one direction. Which direction ? We do not know.


Most of the action is in individual stocks and  PSU Banks stocks are outperforming.

Central bank of India has support at  140 and resistances are at 160-165.

Bank Of Maharastra has support at 60 and resistance at 75.

Nifty set to trade in USA from today

As per the NSE now Nifty can be traded by US investors from today in Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME)  from today. CME is introducing two contracts : E - Mini and E - Micro S & P CNX Nifty Futures.US investors will be able to trade Nifty in CME Globex for 23 hours.They will not be able to trade it from 8 Am to 9 Am  (IST)

What impact will it have on our markets ? Well, let'swait for some more time to see its impact.

Today markets may see gap down opening. Mid cap may continue to outperform.
But short term traders should keep Index stop of 5300  on closing basis for their long positions.


SRF has support at 240 and resistance at 290


Mothersons Sumi systems  has support at 145 and resistance at 200

Sector Buzz : Textile

"If someone feels that they had never made a mistake in their LIFE, then it means they had never tried a new thing in their LIFE" - Albert Einstein


TCS came out with better than expected  results this may augur well for Mid Cap IT space . If Rolta is able to trade above 185 then it could retest 200 with support at 180.


Nifty is finding support at lower levels and as  long as 5300 is held it remains a buy on dip market.
Textiles stocks like SKumars, Crew Bos , BRFL yesterday had a Price  and Volume breakout.


BRFL has support at 260 and resistance is at 300.

Guj Alkali has support at 125 and resistance at 150

Trade less, trade well

Nifty may remain in a range for some time

Yesterday Nifty failed to sustain above 5400 . It has support at 5300 zone and may trade in  a range  for a few trading sessions.There has been lot of build up in Nifty Put as the implied volatility is low .
TCS will come out with result today .

Exide Industries is a good buy on dips . It has support at 130 and resistance at 150.


Our earlier long term trading ideas like Castrol and Zydus wellness are out performing the broader market.

Sector Buzz : Metal and Soft commodities.

Commodities surged up in LME on expectation of  rising global demand .
Sugar futures rose for a second day in New York and London as Thailand repurchased the sweetener for the first time in more than 30 years, fueling speculation that demand will stay strong as buyers add to stockpiles.Sugar stocks being cyclic in nature are good long term bet.


Hindalco has support at 145 and resistances is  at 165 .

United Phos. has support at 172  and resistances is  at 196

Aptech has broken out with spike in volume it has support at 140 and resistances are at 160-170

Keep on booking  profits as we move higher.

The Mental Aspect of Trading By Linda Bradford Raschke

Many traders quickly come to acknowledge that despite being familiar with winning strategies, systems, and money management techniques, trading success is dependent on your psychological state of mind.


Trading is a performance-oriented discipline and Intellect has nothing to do with your ability as a trader.
 
This is an useful article  one can read it by visiting the link

http://www.traderslog.com/mental-aspect-of-trading/

Sector Buzz : NBFC

NBFC stocks have been in strong uptrend and of late some of  them are trading at life time high .Mahindra Fin , Dewan Housing Fin, Shriram Transport , GIC housing fin , Bajaj Auto Fin : all of them are trading at their new highs.Some of the PSU banks like Canara Bank  is also at life time high. Well, from a trading perspective new highs will result in newer highs as stocks do not face any resistance and one should buy . From an investment perspective one should wait for dips to enter.

Mahindra and Mahindra Finance  has support at 475-480 and resistances are at 550-580.

Tata Motors  has support at 770  and resistances are at 823-855.

In mid cap IT one can also look at 3 I infotech with  support at  63 and resistance at 75

The week ahead

Nifty may face hurdles at 5400  but overall the undertone remain bullish. Infosys results will come out on Tuesday and it will be in line with expectations. Lets see how decoupling theory works out this time so far our markets has shown strength  as compared the global markets.

Triveni Engr has support at 100 and resistances are at 120-127

Godrej Industries  has support at 165 and resistances are at 200-220.

Trade less , trade well

Nifty is on the verge of breakout from a flag

Nifty has been trading in  a channel and it can be  considered as a  bullish flag also. We are giving below the chart of Nifty.

If  Nifty is able to  trade above the upper line of this channel and stays above it then it may reach 5600 . With most of the global markets trading below 200 dma at present it  may seem  a unrealistic target  but markets have their own mind. Lets see how things turns out to be.

Oil and Gas sector may be the next leader if Nifty has to reach those targets.

Yes  bank has made a rounding bottom  pattern on charts and it has support at 265 and  resistnace is at 300

Tube investment

Tube Investment has come out after a long consolidation and everybody talks about two wheeler but often this stock which is in Bicycle component is often ignored. bicycle has still huge domestic demand.

Tube investment has support at 108 and and resistance levels are at  135  and 150
 
Trade less, trade well

Reliance Capital

Reliance Capital has support at  700 and on dips its a good long term by with resistance levels of 824 and 930.

Trade less, trade well

Nifty is on its way to retest its previous top

The rally continues after 7 days , now its time to watch 13 days.
Meanwhile , our Ideas like JSW Energy has achieved its target .

PFC , Jindal steel and Power and Eveready looks interesting on charts . They have supports at 287,646 and 57 respectively and resistances are at 306, 740 and 74 respectively.

Market Rallis and continues

Market  shows strength after trading above the range.

 India info line  has support of  of 93 and resistance of 110 / 115

Global Rally : will it sustain?

Global market rallied yesterday after lots of positive economic data.
Back home Nifty is trading in the range of 4950 -5150 with bulls defending the 5000 territory.
Nifty may see further upmove momentum only above 5150.

Will this rally result in another sell off ?  Lets wait for the market to show its hand. IIP data, onset of Monsoon may augur well for the market.The volatility may continue . One should keep the volumes low.

JSW Energy is ready for another  up move on charts.It has support at 116 and resistances are at 131 -150

Castrol has made a nice move . Time to ride  the move.

Trade less, trade well.

Surge In Chinese and Indian Auto Industry

Surge In Chinese and Indian Auto Industry : Drives Lubricant Demand

There is a report about  Increasing Lubricant Demand .The report can be read  at

http://www.klinegroup.com/reports/emailings/newsletters/energy/june2010/timely_trends.asp

Castrol can be put on radar . It has support at  380 and resistances are at 450-500. Its buy on dips

Canara Bank  has support at 396 resistances are at 440-460-480

Global cues will lift the sentiments

Despite all the concerns about Euro Zone global markets are showing no signs of weakness and bounce back every time .
This volatility will continue for some more time.

Nucleus software has support at 130 and resistances are  at 160 -170

Today is also a time to book profit in our  earlier ideas : Dena bank and  Nagarjuna Construction


Trade less , trade well.

Stock specific

Ruchi soya has support at 93 and resistances are at 113-118



Harrison Malyalam has support at 110 and resistances are at 132-14


 
 
Both these stocks had a long consolidation and may again continue with their primary up trend.However, one should keep quantity low .

A sharp recovery

Markets have recovered sharply on the back of recovery in global markets . The concers about Euro Zone seems to be easing now. Coming days may  see  volatililty and wild swings also.

Bank is  a space to be in .
Dena Bank has support at 80 and resistances at 94-100.

Nagarjuna construnction has support at 180 and resistance at 190-200



Our one of the ideas Zydus Wellness is still outperforming the market.

Central Bank Independence, Transparency, and Accountability

Chairman Ben S. Bernanke


At the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies International Conference, Bank of Japan, Tokyo, Japan

http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20100525a.htm

Wait and Watch

There is fear in the air and as we move forward amidst uncertainties volatility will occur.

Lets watch from  the side lines and  wait for the dust to settle down. Nifty is trading below 4900 its below 200 EMA and its not a time to get in.

Protection of capital is also important.

Is short covering round the corner ?

Markets don't behave the way majority thinks and expects it to behave. When everybody talks about market getting further down  Mr Market don't follow their dictum.

We are purely Technical in the sense that we follow charts only and Nifty  did not close below 200 EMA.
As long as it remains above it bull market is intact. We will have bumpy ride ahead looking at global pictures but we may not tank down .

Jubilant Food has support at 250 and resistance is at 350

Tata Motor has support at 675 and resistance is at 760 .

ICICI bank can  also be looked  into.

Lets see how next week turns out to be but one thing is sure - any positive development on global front may result in short covering .

We are not out of woods: Market may remain volatile

Most of  the traders loose that part of money  in volatile and choppy markets which was earned in trending markets.

Therefore, sometimes its wise to wait on side lines and wait for the clarity to emerge. Aggressive traders can wait for rallies to go short.

Time to book profit: We are not out of woods yet

We bought when there was fear . Now its time to take money off the table as everybody says that worst is over. Merely printing money will not solve Euro problem , it will take some more time before things gets sorted out.

Nifty is hovering around key resistance levels.
Let wait on sidelines with cash in hand for another opportunity.

Trade less, trade well.

Time to book part profit

Our view on last Friday was that most of the global bad news has already factored in and it was time to be greedy and time for buy.Well, it paid off well , as we move forward market is expected to meet resistances . Therefore, its better to book some profit today .

How a technical error resulted in Dow Jones plunging 996 points

In one of the most dizzying half-hours in stock market history, the Dow plunged nearly 1,000 points before paring those losses—all apparently due to a trader error. 
According to multiple sources, a trader entered a "b" for billion instead of an "m" for million in a trade possibly involving Procter & Gamble [PG  60.75    -1.41  (-2.27%)   ], a component in the Dow. (CNBC's Jim Cramer noted suspicious price movement in P&G stock on air during the height of the market selloff.

Be Greedy when others are fearful: Time to take plunge

Well, the carnage in Global markets will be highlighted on every business channel and next morning news paper will be full of headline stories of financial doom.

This is the time to be brave and start buying .
One should look to pick up good stocks from Banking, IT, Auto , Pharma and Capital Goods sector.

HDF Bank, Yes Bank,  Uco Bank, Tata Motors and select metal stocks like JSW Steel, Sterlite can be bought by taking advantage of this gap down opening.
Those who  want to take  less risks can buy Nifty Bees  today and in every fall they should keep on adding.

These panics gives you opportunity to buy. We have been waiting on the sidelines with cash in hand for those dip.
Happy Hunting

Time to revisit our earlier post:The World's Biggest Debtor Nations

On our post of 07-04-2010 we talked about reading about " The Worlds Biggest Debtor Nations" - a slide presentation by CNBC.
Its time to revisit it:

http://swingtradingideas.blogspot.com/2010/04/worlds-biggest-debtor-nations.html

Biocon

Biocon has support at 280 and resistances are at 296-303-310

Environment has changed

Wall street tumbled down on fear of European debt crisis. We were  cautious of this uncertain environment and booked profits and sitting on cash for another opportunity.

Keep Banking stocks particularly Axis, Yes Bank, LIC HF , IT stocks  and mid cap pharma stocks  on your radar. Wait for the market to become stabilise. Metal sector will remain under pressure.

Not taking any position is also a position.

HPCL hits target: Volatility will continue

Our one of the swing trading ideas: forgotten stock " HPCL" is on target.

Market may remain volatile and choppy.

Yes Bank has support at 277 and resistance is at 300


Trade well and have fun

Sugar sector on radar - will it become sweet again ?

Greece has sealed a deal with the European Union and IMF that opens the door to a multi-billion euro financial bailout and will require big sacrifices from the Greek people, Prime Minister George Papandreou said on Sunday.

Lets us see how markets react to this development.
Back home the focus willl be on the next batch of Q4  earnings .

Sugar sectors has been hammered a lot and there are signs of recovery on charts. Kep the sector in focus with Dhampur Sugar and Balrampur Chini in mind.
Torrrent Pharma has started moving up from a long consolidation range. We have covered this stock along with FDC in our blong from time to time and both of them has given decent results.

Torrent Pharma has support at 500 and resistances are at 600-650.

Triveni  has support at 105 and resistance  at 125




 Trade less,Trade well, Trade wise  and have fun.

A Pull Back Rally

Talks about Greece bail out resulted in strong rally in Global markets. US markets  also rallied on the back of fall in jobless claim and this increased the confidence of market participants in US economic recovery.

Back home we may also see a strong follow up.


Today we are discussing about two stocks which are a good short term as well as an invest buy for one year horizon.

We believe that Insurance Sector along with Health Care  is Sun Rise industries. Insurance will also penetrate in rural areas once the big companies realize the great potential they have in the rural sector. UID, NREGA and a very simple approach of claim, record keeping and printing of Insurance forms in Hindi or other vernacular language will go a long way in tapping this yet another bottom of the pyramid market. Hope Insurance companies wake up to these realities soon as the present Insurance system is heavily tilted towards urban educated populace.

Max India can be a safer bet for long term from this sector. It has support at 170-175 and resistances are at 200-225 and 240.

Another sector is from leisure and hospitality. .

Country Club has support at 21 and resistances are at 33-38-45.

Kovai Medical is up by 5 %

Kovai Medical is up by 5 %. Short term traders can book partial profit here

Time to be Cautious

Global markets had a volatile session yesterday after the S&P downgraded its debt rating on Spain. This follows downgrades on Greece and Portugal, which sparked a selloff day before.

This is time to lighten up, book profits  and wait on the sidelines with some cash in hand. Keep your volume low and buy small quantity and be quick to book profit.Nifty has major resistance at 5350-5400.


Reliance Industries  is attractive at these levels and one can also average it down if it falls further.

Going forward we may see volatile sessions ahead.


 Kovai Medical has very intresting patterns on charts. Its peer Apollo Hospital is also doing well.  In  a lighter vein in this global  financial turmoil  Hospital sector will do well

Kovai Medical has support at 145 and resistance is at 175 / 200.


IDFC has support at 160 and resistance is at 175




Trade well, trade wise and have fun

NFL is up 5 %

NFL has moved more than 5% . Now trailing stop is at 100.

ONGC Hits Target: Book Profit

ONGC has hit its final target . One should book profit

Market may remain sideways

Our one of the swing trading ideas Sterlite has done well yesterday.

Nifty may remain sideways  as it is trading near  a major resistance zone. Most of the Q 4 results are already factored in. Therefore, Index heavyweight may also remain sideways.
Mid cap space may show some momentum .
Expectation of good monsoon augurs well for select fertilizer stocks.Graphite India is trading at new highs. Graphite is used as moderator in Nuclear Reactor Plants

NFL has support at 96 and resistance is at 126


Graphite India  has support at 93  and resistances are  at 120-130


Trade well, trade less and have fun

Let Greece Go Bankrupt: Jim Rogers

Allowing Greece to go bankrupt may cause a lot of pain, but it will be better for the euro in the long run, investor Jim Rogers said in an interview with CNBC on Friday.

Sterlite is nearing first target : Book partial profit

Sterlite is trading near its first target of 830. Its time to book partial profit with trailing stop at 795.

Will Nifty breakout above 5400 ?

Last week we saw Nifty retesting 5160 after touching  a high of 5400.
Corporate Earnings have been as per the street  expectations and  ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank also came out with more than expected results. This will keep momentum up in banking sectors.
Going forward global cues , market reaction to RIL numbers will be key in deciding whether Nifty is able to trade above 5400 ? Nifty will gain further upward momentum if it is able to trade above 5400.
This level is also an opportunity to get rid of trash stocks.
Banking, Oil and Gas, Infra and Capital goods are the sectors which may carry the momentum up.

JP associate has support at 153 and resistances are at 167-175.


Godrej Industries  has support at 165 and resistances are at 185-190.


Sterlite  has support at 785  and resistances are at 830-850. 




Trade well

An Inspirational Video - The Law Of Attraction

Key Ingredients to Performing Your Best

1. Passion. You must be passionate about what you are doing and having fun. Passion first, then performance.

2. Confidence. Top performance comes from having a high degree of confidence. You must have the confidence that you can take control and face adversity. You must also be confident that you will have a favorable outcome over time.

3. Concentration. Peak performance comes from exceptional CONCENTRATION. You must concentrate on the process, though, not the outcome. A sprinter who is in the lead is thinking about the wind on their face, how relaxed their arms are, feeling the perfect stride…they are totally in the moment. The person who does NOT have the edge is thinking, “Oh, that runner is pulling ahead of me…I don’t know if I have enough wind to catch the leader…” They are tense and tight because they are thinking about the outcome, not the process.

4. Resiliency. Great performances come from being able to rebound quickly and forget about mistakes.

5. Challenge. Great performance comes from pushing yourself and trying to overcome limitations. Staying in the safe zone becomes a monkey on your back. Challenge yourself to take that hard trade. Manage it. If it does not work out, so what…your risk was limited and you can pat yourself on the back for taking the hard trade in the first place.

6. See and DO don't think! Great performance comes from turning off the brain and becoming automatic. This is being in the Zone …in the groove. You can’t overanalyze the markets during the trading day.

 7 Relaxation. When you are relaxed, your reflexes and timing are superior because you are loose.

ONGC bounces back - Hits first target

ONGC has bounced back and is trading near the first target.Time to book partial profits

Jayshree Tea has also hit its first resistance

Market seems exhausted

Banking sectors did have a follow up yesterday but it failed to take Nifty to key resistance level of 5300. It remained volatile . Going forward  though  a lot will depend on global cues but on chart Nifty seems exhausted .Nifty will have upward momentum only above 5400.
One should also look for shorting opportunities at higher levels.

Jayshree Tea has corrected a lot  and it has support at  285 and resistances are at 305-314-322.

Ge Shipping  can become a sell candidate only if it trades below 330 with stop of 340 for a target of 320-315

Trade well.

Book profit in Nagarjuna Construnction

Today Nifty may reach the hurdle of 5300  today on the back of good global cues.
One should book profit in Nagarjuna Construnction and wait on the sidelines for the market to show its hand.

Despite market expectation of RBI credit policies Bank stocks did not have a fancy run yesterday. Lets see if they get  a follow up buying today.

Oil and Gas sector stocks  may see some action today . ONCG is trading at crucial support of 998 and may bounce back to 1030- 1040.

Trade well, trade less and more important -- have fun !

Ngarjuna Construction Hits First target

Ngarjuna Construction Hits First target. One should book partial profit.

We are not out of woods yet !

Market may see a pull back today on the back of good global cues.Going forward 5250-5300 will act as stiff resistance.

Nagarjuna Construction  has support at 165 and if it trades above 166.80 then it could hit its resistance levels of 178-185.

Goldman Could Trigger Market Correction: Jim Rogers

Some expert investors have described the market's reaction to the SEC's accusations against Goldman Sachs as a 'storm in a teacup.' They believe the fallout would be  short-lived, and eventually present buying opportunities.


However, billionaire investor Jim Rogers, Chairman of Rogers Holdings, feels slightly differently.

You can read the full story at :

 http://www.cnbc.com/id/36616382

Market may remain Volatile

Market may start this week with cautious. Fears of an adverse outcome of the RBI’s annual policy meet on tomorrow may also weigh high on the market.

Its best to wait on the sidelines and keep the strong stocks on our radar.

Zydus wellness, Cox and kings,Pirmal health, Fortis healthcare,are to be kept on your watch list. 

Liquidity may tapper off.

On Charts Nifty has broken down and below 5250 it may remain in short term downtrend.

Interest rate sensitive sectors may remain under pressure

Principles of Peak Performance

The first principle of peak performance is to put fun and passion first. Get the performance pressures out of your head. Forget about statistics, percentage returns, win/loss ratios, etc. Floor-traders scratch dozens of trades during the course of a day, but all that matters is whether they're up at the end of the month.

The second principle of peak performance is confidence. in yourself, your methodology, and your ability to succeed. Some people are naturally born confident. Other people are able to translate success from another area in their life. Perhaps they were good in sports, music, or academics growing up. There's also the old-fashioned "hard work" way of getting confidence. Begin by researching and developing different systems or methodologies. Put in the hours of backtesting. Tweak and modify the systems so as to make them your own. Study the charts until you've memorized every significant swing high or low. Self-confidence comes from developing a methodology that YOU believe in.
Concentrate on the technical conditions. Have a clear game plan. Don't listen to CNBC, your broker, or a friend. You must do your own analysis and have confidence in your game plan to be a successful trader.

The third important ingredient for achieving peak performance is attitude. Attitude is how you deal with the inevitable adverse situations that occur in the markets. Attitude is also how you handle the daily grind, the constant 2 steps forward and 2 steps back. Every professional has gone through long flat times. Slumps are inevitable for it's impossible to stay on top of your game 100% of the time. Once you've dug yourself out of a hole, no matter how long it takes, you know that you can do it again. If you've done something once, it is a repeatable act. That knowledge is a powerful weapon and can make you a much stronger trader.


Most people react differently when they're under pressure. They tend to be more emotional or reactive. They tense up and judgment is often impaired. Many talented athletes can't cut it because they choke when the pressure's on. You could be a brilliant analyst but a lousy trader. Consistency is far more important than brilliance. Just strive for consistency in what you do and let go of the performance expectations.

If you admit to yourself that you truly don't have the will to win at this game, don't try to trade. It is too easy to lose too much money. Many people think that they'll enjoy trading when they really don't. It's boring at times, lonely during the day, mentally trying, with little structure or security. The markets are not a logical or fair playing ground. But there are numerous inefficiencies and patterns ready to be exploited, and there always will be.

Divergence Worked

On Daily Chart Nifty had divergence and finally price followed the momentum.

Nifty may try a pull back and one have to see its strength at key resistances of 5320 - 5350.

We will have a short term trend reversal only if Nifty trades below 5250.

Geometric Software has support at 70.50 and resistances are at 79- 84

Keep your volume low.

Trade less, trade well

Rally in Global Markets

commodity including crude oil prices have rallied on the back of better-than-estimated corporate earnings . It has increased confidence of risk takers in the global economic rebound.

Bernanke statement “On balance, the incoming data suggest that growth in private final demand will be sufficient to promote a moderate economic recovery in coming quarters,”also eased the concern .

On CRB Index Sugar and Crude Oil futures have rallied more than 2.0 %.

Cairn has support at 300 and resistance at 315.

Balrampur Chini has support at 93 and resistance at 106

RS Software has support at 48 and resistance at 65-68

Have fun keep your volume low and trade well

Bull and Bear Markets

Bull Markets are-

• Born on pessimism
• Grow on skepticism
• Mature on optimism
• Die on euphoria

Bear Markets are

• Born on recessions
• Grow on technical breakdowns
• Mature on eco-political nightmares
• Die on world-is-coming-to-an-end

Is majority skeptical now ?

Is gold ready to challenge its all-time high?

Adam Hewison,President, INO.com,Co-creator, Market Club presents this video on Gold movement.



http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold412/

Flight to safety

Nifty is showing divergence on daily chart. If nifty trades below 5250 then only we would be able to say that a short term trend reversal is on cards.

On the up side a breakout above 5400 will confirm fresh upward momentum .

NFL has support at 98 and resistances are at 112-118 -124.

Ideas for the week

Nifty is going into the tenth week after closing in positive for the last nine weeks. On daily charts divergence is still there. As we go higher the risk also gets higher.
Its liquidity driven market so watch your steps.
keep your volumes low, follow stops and be quick to book profit.
For short term traders Nifty has supports at 5300-5320.

Some of the ideas for the week are :

Jai corp : Support 275 , resistance 315

Godrej properties : Support 520 , resistance 560


GSPL : Support 90 , resistance 104

Trade less, trade well and have fun

The Mental Aspect of Trading by Linda Bradford Raschke

Many traders quickly come to acknowledge that despite being familiar with winning strategies, systems, and money management techniques, trading success is dependent on your psychological state of mind. If you're a trader just starting out, where do you find the initial confidence to pull the trigger? How do you deal with the down times without digging yourself deeper into the hole? If you are in a hole, how do you work your way back out? How do experienced traders push through the ceiling of profitability that caps their initial trading years and make a truly fabulous living?

Trading is a performance-oriented discipline. Stress and mental pressures can affect your ability to function and impact your bottom line. Much of what has been learned about achieving peak performance in both business and sports can be applied to trading. But before looking at some of these factors, let's first examine the ways that trading differs from other businesses.

1. Intellect has nothing to do with your ability as a trader. Success is not a function of how smart you are or how much you have applied yourself academically. This is hard to accept in a society that puts a premium on intellect.
2. There is no customer or client good will built up each day in your business. Customer relationships, traditionally important in American businesses, have little to do with a trader's profitability. Each day is a clean slate.
3. The traditionally 8-5 work ethic doesn't apply in this business! A trader could sit in front of a screen all day waiting for a recognizable pattern to occur and have nothing happen. There is a temptation to take marginal trades just so a trader can feel like he's doing something. There's also the dilemma of putting in constant hours of research, having nothing to show for it, and not getting paid for the work done. Yet if a trader works too hard, he risks burn- out. And what about those months where 19 out of 20 days are profitable, but the trader gives it all back in one or two bad days? How can a trader account for his productivity in these situations?
4. If you were to invest time, energy, and emotion into developing a business venture and backed out at the last minute, it would be considered a failure. However, you should be able to invest time and energy into researching a trading idea, and yet still be able to change your mind at the last minute. Market conditions change, and we cannot be expected to predict all the variables with foresight. Getting out of a bad trade with only a small loss should be considered a big success!
What IS the definition of a successful trader? He should feel good about himself and enjoy playing the game. You can make a few small trades a year as a hobby, generate some very modest profits, and be quite successful because you had fun. There are also aggressive traders who have had big years, but ultimately blow-out, ruin their health or lead miserable lives from all the stress they put themselves under.

Next week we will discuss about peak performance ;
The first principle of peak performance is to put fun and passion first. Get the performance pressures out of your head. Forget about statistics, percentage returns, win/loss ratios, etc.
More in next week.
Have a nice weekend ahead !

Price followed momentum

We mentioned in our previous post that on Nifty daily chart we saw divergence. The oscillators were not making new highs while Nifty was trading at new high . Price always follow momentum.Today we saw a small correction.

Our earlier idea Sunil high Tech has achieved target. one should book profit

Nifty is still in uptrend and these dips offer buying opportunities.

Cipla has support at 330 and resistance is at 355.

HPCL : A forgotten stock

OMC stock have of late fallen from the grace and are almost a forgotten entities.
As a trader we should look for these opportunities. Crude oil price had a non stop rally for more than a week and have reached 18- month high and are trading at major resistance area . We do not see a further upside on crude oil price on a short term basis. Any fall in crude oil price will prove beneficial for OMCs.

HPCL is trading near a major support area.It can be bought with a stop at 290 for a pull back level of 325- 340.

The World's Biggest Debtor Nations

Throughout the financial crisis, many national economies have looked to their government and foreign lenders for financial support, which translates to increased spending, borrowing and in most cases, growing national debt.

Deficit spending, government debt and private sector borrowing are the norm in most western countries, but due in part to the financial crisis, some nations and economies are in considerably worse debt positions than others.


You can know about this by watching the slide presented by CNBC.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959/

Neyveli Lignite

Neyveli Lignite has resumed its upswing . It has support at 146 and resistances are at 162-168 and 175.

Mid Cap Auto Sector on focus

Today Nifty had a flat closing. On charts the divergence is still there. Lets see whether price will follow the momentum or not ?
On Nifty daily chart leading indicators are not making new highs while Nifty is at new high.Coming few session will show us what is in store. any way, its better to loose opinion than money.

Today Mid cap Auto stocks saw buying interest . Mid cap is the place where action is going to be .

Motherson Sumi Systems has support at 126 and resistances are at 145- 152 & 155.

Trade well and learn about the market tendencies .

Keep PSU banks on your radar

Mid cap PSU banks are showing momentum on charts and rising crude oil prices augurs well for oil and gas sector.

Bank of Maharastra has support at 48 and resistances are at 54- 59

HOEC has support at 227 and resistances are at 282-294 .

Nifty Breaks out on aTrend Day

Nifty broke out of the recent resistance of 5330 . Today was a trend day on such day market closes at extremes.

Though Nifty made a new high but on charts momentum oscillators failed to make a new high.

Is it divergence or are we being the party spoiler ? Well , just a simple observation.

Prices are making a new high but oscillators are not making a new highs.
Just a time to be cautious when everybody is euphoric.

In light of the above we would bet on low risk opportunity.
NMDC of late has been thrashed a lot.
Its historic support is at 280 zone.Its recent support is at 290. Its trading in a narrow range between 290-300. A pull back can take it to 325 -340..
Iron ore prices are also firming up.

Trade less , trade wise .

Ideas for the week

Nifty is hovering near its major resistance level. One should watch for closing above 5330 for a few trading sessions.

Everonn system has manged to claw back and closed above 200 EMA with increase in volume after trading below it for 14 days. It has support at 370 and resistances are at 406-418 and 428.

Zydus Wellness : We talked about this stock in our blog before on Feb. 02, 2010 and since then this stock has outperformed the market. The stock is strong on all time frame and should be bough on every dip. The support is at 378 and target could be 450-500.

Trade consistently and have fun.

Linda Bradford Raschke On Indicators and Trading

Linda Bradford Raschke is President of LBRGroup, Inc She was recognized in Jack Schwager's critically acclaimed book, The New Market Wizards, and is known for her own top selling book, Street Smarts - High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies. She has been featured in dozens of financial publications, radio and financial television programs, and has served on the Board of Directors for the Market Technician's Association and is currently Vice President of the American Association of Professional Technical Analysts.

You can watch her presentation on Technical Analysis and Trading
There are seven videos and you should start by watching Classic Indicators 1/7 and then watch 2/ 7 till you finish 7/7.
Hope you will use this long weekend to learn a brief history of TA.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsI2JxGx5Es

There is another video on Trading Education - Emotional Intelligence for Traders

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tdm0eXGq0PI&feature=PlayList&p=0E632E0829950F8E&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1





Have a nice weekend ahead.

Cairn and Torrent Pharma Hits Target

Our Stock Ideas Cairn and Torrent Pharma which we discussed on 28-03-10 and 11-03-10 respectively hits its target .One can book partial profit and for remaining position trailing stop is 518 and next target is 580-600.

This stock is trading is at new high and is unlikely to face any resistance.

If you look at the chart you can see a clear uptrend.

This week is going to be a short one on account of holiday on Friday. Trade light with low volume as Nifty is trading near its resistance . We will watch the intermediate top of 5330 closely and will step up on long side only when Nifty trades above it for a few trading session.

Till then trade less and have fun

Fortis moves up : book partial profit

Our last week idea Fortis Healthcare has moved up its time to book partial profits.

This weeks ideas Yes Bank, India Bull Real Estate and Cairn has also done well.


Trade well and have fun

Our Ideas : Polaris Software, Mind Tree, Bio Con has done well

Hope you had a nice weekend.

You must have watched the chart action of Kotak Bank.Till now it has behaved as per our expectation.

Our Ideas Polaris Software, Biocon, Mind Tree has done extremely well.
Now its time to book profit.Those of our ideas which have not done well did not hit our stops and at the most are ranged-bound.Overall on net - net basis we are in huge profit.

India Bull Real Estate has support at 141 and resistances are at 165 -170

Yes Bank has support at 236 and resistances are at 260-276-285.

Cairn has support at 289 and resistances are at 302-309.

On sectoral front Cement stocks are looking exhausted on charts. Nifty is also at crucial resistance levels therefore, one should exit from cement stocks on rallies.

Be relaxed and trade well

Trading Psychology: Not Dead, Can't Quit, No Limit Thinking with Navy Seal Vet Richard Machowicz

For our weekend reading we are reproducing here Interview of Richard Machowitz navy seal future weapos interview.

The interview was taken by Larry Connors , an established trader and writer.You will find that what type of mindset is required for trading.

Richard Machowitz has written a book " Unleashing the warrior within : using the 7 principles of combat to achieve your goals."

The warrior knows if he chooses the weakest path,the only person he truly cheats is himself. -- Richard Machowicz, "Unleashing the Warrior Within".

http://www.amazon.com/s?ie=UTF8&rh=i:stripbooks,p_27:Richard%20J.%20Machowicz&field-author=Richard%20J.%20Machowicz&page=1

We thought that we would provide a special interview for readers just in time for the Independence Day holiday weekend: Richard Machowicz.

Richard Machowicz is a 10-year Navy SEAL veteran and was a fighting instructor while he was with the SEALs. Machowicz is the author of Unleash the Warrior Within: Develop the Focus, Discipline, Confidence, and Courage You Need to Achieve Unlimited Goals.
He is also host of the wildly popular Future Weaponsshow on the Discovery Channel.

Here is how Larry Connors, who spent some time training with Machowicz, described the man in introductory notes before an interview back in November 2002:

"Richard is someone who has lived his life on the extreme edge of personal achievement and who has a philosophy that's the backbone of that achievement. Richard only moves in one direction and that is dead straight ahead. He's intense, extremely focused and highly intelligent. You only need to spend a few hours with him to know why major figures in the entertainment industry, business world and now an NBA team rely upon his training to help them achieve further success in their professions."

With that endorsement, TradingMarkets presents a real-life American Warrior: Richard "Mack" Machowicz. The interview was conducted with Larry Connors in the fall of 2002.

Larry Connors: Welcome, Richard. I have a number of questions for you, and our main focus in this interview will be on extreme achievement. Our members tend to be type A individuals, many of whom have been successful in a previous profession and are now trying to succeed in the trading industry, which is a very, very difficult game. It is an extremely mental game which has less to do with having the ability to get in and out of positions than being able to sustain losses and handle chaos in those positions. Most people can't handle it. The failure rate in the industry is high. And it's high with people who are incredibly intelligent. It also has to do with the fact that trading tends to be counterintuitive. That confuses people because they have previously succeeded by being intuitive and logical. Trading is just the opposite.

What we're going to try to do here is focus on achievement -- why people achieve great success -- not only in trading, but in all walks of life.

Richard Machowicz: Sounds great.

Connors: The main thing that people are interested in is the fact that you were a successful Navy SEAL. Let's talk about the extreme training process that one has to go through to become a SEAL. As I see it, it becomes a mastery over two things. The first thing is the mastery over the SEALs which is one skill set, and the other thing is the mastery over yourself, which is harder to do. Do you want to talk about that and take it from there?

Machowicz: Sure. What it takes to make it as a SEAL and to achieve extreme success in anything in life really comes down to one thing: How bad do you want it?

There are times when you think that the SEAL instructors are literally trying to kill you. You have to be able to generate the capacity to keep moving forward in spite of that fact. Or at least in spite of that belief. I think that's the real challenge, but I also think that it translates to everything you want to do really badly in life.

It's not some magic formula that's going to allow somebody to go after the thing they want to do. It's the consistent progress or moving toward the thing they want to do, regardless of whatever thing comes up -- and I call that thing "quitting." That quitting conversation will show up a hundred different ways. You can say, "This thing is bullshit. This thing is crazy. I can't believe I'm doing this." Or you can create things like, "Well, that person's just trying to hold me back," or "I'm just not good enough." Whatever... I'm telling you, quitting sounds very reasonable. Literally, it's a very simple process of getting on target and moving forward vs. the conversation that leads to quitting. And those conversations show up every day for people. And really, that's the battle. That's the war. If there's a war going on, really the war is within yourself and one you have to confront day after day.

The majority of people who get selected to SEAL training will quit, drop out or simply go away. You've got to be able to generate within yourself the mind frame that you must always be going forward. And you've got to want the thing bad enough to be willing to do anything to get there, regardless of and in spite of all the obstacles, in spite of all the hurdles, in spite of all the doubts that get in...the stress and the pain, you've got to keep going forward.

Connors: Is it necessary to have the mind frame to reach extreme goals that you are either going to achieve the goals or die? Because that seems to be the common characteristic for many people, such as Navy SEALs, who achieve extreme success. It's tough for somebody to sustain that type of mind frame, but is that the type of mind frame it takes to get there?

Machowicz: Well, it makes it very binary. You're either going forward and accomplishing or you're not. It's very clear under pressure, under stress, under doubt, under hesitation, under pain, under intense fear, to make that clear decision. You're either going forward toward it, or you're not. It gets all the excuses out of there.

I'm telling you: Quitting is very reasonable. I can have a million reasons to quit. But can you find the one reason to keep going forward? And literally, by saying, "Well, I'm going to keep going until I die." As long as you're still breathing, as long as you have a single pulse in your body, you can still go forward. I think it just makes it very easy to distinguish whether you're going forward or you're not.

Under stress and pressure, you think about the doubt... and it's just self doubt. I think everybody has self doubt. Everybody has those things that occasionally creep in. I don't care how strong you are. You've still got to be able to go one step further. And as long as you can breathe, you can still go one step further. You're not dead. And so I live by the axiom, "Not dead. Can't quit."

I got a quote that really drove me forward when I was trying to get ready for the SEAL team and getting ready for BUD/S. It's a six-month course and people get badly injured. We had four broken necks, broken legs, broken arms in the class. It's a severe, intense course. And they have this thing everybody knows about called Hell Week in which 80% of the participants fail. I think we had a class of about 140 people and eventually we finished with 23 or 24 people graduating. That's a significant drop off, especially considering the screening process you had to go through just to qualify for the class. I was like 150 lb. soaking wet at 6 ft. I was desperate to have some kind of advantage. Some kind of thing that would give me an edge. When it was going bad, I needed something to keep me going forward.

I was fortunate to have a friend whose brother had made it through SEAL camp. I didn't know the guy personally, but what happened was he sent me a picture. On the picture was his platoon jumping out of an airplane. It gave me a visual representation of what I wanted to be able to accomplish. But more importantly, when I turned the picture over, there was a quote. On the back of this picture was a quote that said, " A man can only be defeated in two ways: if he gives up, or if he dies."

That radically shifted where I was ever going to come from that day to the day I die. A man can only be defeated in two ways -- he gives up or he dies. I carried that quote with me until the ink disappeared off that piece of paper.

Connors: Great mind frame.

Your means of execution to achieve your goals is centered around a phrase you coined: "targets, weapons, movement." You choose your target, which is basically what you are trying to accomplish. This target will dictate what weapons you will use to achieve the target. And your movement will be based upon the weapons you will be using. I know this concept is new for many people who are reading this for the first time, so let's walk through it.

Machowicz: Yeah. I created this thing called the play dynamic for combat. Basically, it's: Targets dictate the weapons. Weapons dictate movement. As long as you are very clear on what your target is, you don't even have to think, and weapons will show up. You don't have to think and the appropriate movement will show up.

That way, you see the things that matter vs. all the things that don't. That's what we're competing for on a second-by-second basis, especially under stress and pressure. You're competing with all the information that doesn't matter vs. the specific information that does. And what happens is most people fixate on the minutiae that doesn't matter vs. the one laser point that will drive them to the thing they want to accomplish.

Let me give you a specific example: Let's say I'm coming directly at you to kill you. At that brief second, you have a target. And what is your target? You sure as hell better take me out. And the specific targets to take me out are my groin, eyes or throat. So depending upon which target you have chosen (groin, eyes or throat) will dictate which weapons you will use. For example, your knee for my groin, your hand for my throat, or your fingers for my eyes. And after you decide which weapons you will use, the movement becomes automatic. During that brief second of time, nothing else matters. It doesn't matter how you look. It doesn't matter if you're late for an appointment. I doesn't matter if somebody stiffed you for $20. That's all bullshit! The only thing that matters at that second is targets, weapons, movement.

Otherwise, you're dead.

Connors: The target applies to everything in life. For the SEALs, you guys went quickly into a foreign country to execute a mission. That mission became your target.

That's all that mattered. But that same focus applies to everything in life. I recently read an article by a professor from Harvard Business School. His research found that there is no formula to business greatness. There are, however, themes, and the number one theme was a clear mission. So essentially, the people who achieved greatness in their businesses had a clear mission. They had a clear target. And when it comes down to trading, it is the same thing. A clear target can be wanting to earn $1 million a year, or wanting to become the #1 hedge fund manager in the world. That becomes a clear target.

Machowicz: Yes, for sure. You just talked about big targets. I also categorize targets as primary and secondary... Once you get a target that big, I call it the mission. Inside of that mission, there have to be incremental targets. In other words, there is a target before the next target. I call that target the primary target which will, if you hit it and knock it down, set up the secondary target.

Connors: Give us some examples. Let's say we know what the ultimate target is, what the mission is. What are examples of the primary targets here within this mission?

Machowicz: In a SEAL team context, what is our mission? Let's say, we're supposed to do a kidnap, what they call a body snatch. In other words, we need to collect the general. We go to grab a specific person because that person has intelligence and we need to capture that person alive. That is the mission. There can then be literally a hundred or two hundred different targets inside that mission. Now all that matters is accomplishing the mission, but before you can accomplish the mission, you have to do planning. You make a target of setting up a good plan. In other words, creating a time, a very specific time frame where we've got to have a good plan by this time. Period. The end. Now that's the target. Now you start to break up little things. Ultimately, inside of a mission you have insertion -- you could be jumping out of an airplane or coming in by a boat or being inserted via submarine. Then you have infiltration -- the process of getting to the target, the main objective. And then you have the actions you do, what they call actions on the objective. What specifically are you going to do on the objective? Then you have to leave the objective and exfiltrate, in other words get out of that dangerous territory now that you've told everybody in the world that you're probably in that town --

Connors: So are these all targets on the way?

Machowicz: Yes, because if I started focusing on exfiltration before I actually got the guy, what are the odds of me being able to get the guy, or to actually infiltrate?

Connors: So it's one step at a time?

Machowicz: You've got to.

Connors: Let's talk about this in trading terms then. In trading terms, your first target would be to identify the setup. Then it would be to properly get into that setup. Then it's to properly put in your stops. Then from there it's to properly start taking profits on your position and move your stops. You're going one step at a time. You're not thinking about losing money or how you're going to spend the money or whether or not this is your third win in a row. You're not jumping ahead four steps -- your total focus is on simply executing the next step.

Machowicz: Exactly. Which helps you stay focused on the main target.

Connors: And it takes the chaos out of the situation.

Machowicz: Exactly! In other words, thoughts or feelings or things that don't belong get thrown by the wayside and only what is essential to accomplishing your overall mission is kept in the mix.

Connors: So targets dictate weapons; weapons dictate movement. We've talked about the targets, let's talk about weapons. How does this all work?

Machowicz: Really, when we talk about weapons, when I use it as a physical metaphor because usually I try to teach it through a physical metaphor, I want you to develop weapons that easily knock down the target without you getting hurt. And that's real important, for example, when you talk about using stops in your trading. Minimizing losses is one of the steps in helping you hit your target, and one of the weapons you use to do this is to use stops. What you're trying to do is use specific weapons to maximize a profit or maximize an income without putting yourself in major jeopardy.

Connors: Go further...

Machowicz: The weapons are... let's call it a skill set. The weapons could be skills, they could be strategies. They could be actual tools. They could be the technology you are using. It depends on how you're looking at it. What your target is. Again, it really depends on what your target is. But most likely it's skills or equipment, gear... whatever it is that helps you knock down the target. And movement is simply the act of making the weapon hit the target.

Connors: I see this a lot where traders will not pull the trigger on a trade... they have a movement problem. They have everything put together, they know they're supposed to take the trade, they know where the entry is and then when it comes time to pull the trigger, they won't do it. That's the movement you're talking about. They become paralyzed.

Machowicz: Well, that's what happens. Somewhere in this chain of "targets dictate weapons, weapons dictate movement," some place between target and weapon, the whole world can fit in there. When I say the whole world -- your whole world of doubt, second-guessing, hesitation, fear, the unknown. And the longer it takes for you to pull the trigger -- like you said -- the more that doubt, second-guessing, hesitation, pain and fear creep in to that mechanism

Connors: How do you get them to not creep in?

Machowicz: Go back to the target! Focus only on this one thing. Just ask yourself, "What is the target? What is the target?" This incredibly reduces the chaos and brings everything back into focus.

Connors: Always focus on the target.

Machowicz: Yes. And the second half of this is having guts.

What I like to do -- basically it's a really simple question. I do this thing called the "gut check." I was really trying to find out what it was going to take for me to be able to just really handle BUD/S and become a SEAL. What it was going to take for me? Was it going to be the kind of shorts I wore that would reduce chafing? Would it be some kind of socks I wore to reduce some of the chafing or maybe try and keep my feet warm? Was it going to be some kind of supplement that was going to help me? It turned out that all that stuff just was garbage. That didn't matter. The one thing that kept coming back to me when I would check in, trying to find out what that secret was, was you have to have guts. You've just got to have guts. I got the experience of learning what guts was by sticking through to the end. I got that visceral feeling of what "guts" was. So what I wanted to do was develop a very simple way so that you could get a "gut" check. If you could answer yes to these three questions, you have the guts you need to take on anything in life.

Connors: What are those three questions?

Machowicz: The first question is: Are you willing to make a choice?

Now, a lot of people make choices every day. They choose to watch TV, or to do something else, or they choose to be nice to somebody or they choose not to be nice to somebody. But rarely do they make a choice that would substantially improve the quality of their lives. I'm willing to give the benefit of the doubt to the person willing to play the game, and yes, a lot of people are willing to make choices. But when we come to the second question, we start losing people.

We probably lose half the people on the second question: Do you have the courage to start?

A lot of people talk the talk, but when it comes to walking the walk, they disappear. Really, that's it. Are you willing to step up and show up and get the work done?

Connors: Why do you think half the people stop?

Machowicz: I think people are afraid.

Connors: Why?

Machowicz: Why? Number one, I think people don't think they're good enough, for the most part. People think there's something inherently wrong with themselves.

Connors: Self doubt.

Machowicz: Yes, they just don't feel they're worthy. They're afraid to even try. They're so sure they're going to fail. They're so sure they're going to get screwed. They're so sure it's going to fall apart that they refuse to even show up in the first place.

Connors: How do you overcome that?

Machowicz: How? Recognize you don't even know what's going to happen. You do not know from second to second what is going to happen in your life. You've got an idea. You think you know. But the reality is what's going to happen ten seconds from now, you really don't know. What's going to happen an hour from now?

You really don't know. A year from now? You really don't know. That's the state, that's the condition of our lives.

Connors: So, if you don't try, you do know that you're not going to succeed.

Machowicz: But you know what? You didn't even have an opportunity. The mind doesn't want to even go there. It will just assume that it knows that you can't succeed, so it validates the fact that, guess what? "I know everything."

Connors: How do you trip the mind up to make it believe it will succeed?

Machowicz: I don't think you have to trip the mind up. I mean you can do that. You can short-circuit that process. You can use fear to manipulate you and drive you, but your results tend to be overblown and out of control. What I'm more interested in is seeing guys be able to say, "Listen, this is the target, and the fact of the matter is that I don't know if I can accomplish it or not, but I am going to try. I'm just going to go one step further, I'm going to go one little foot at a time, inch by inch if I have to. But I'm just going to keep going forward and stay connected to the target. Whatever that target is. I'm just going to take one more little tiny step, one more breath in that direction."

Connors: And the third question is...

Machowicz: Do you have the guts to finish? Do you have the guts to succeed at the mission you set out to achieve? Do you know what the only common

characteristic there is amongst the thousands of people who haven't made it through Hell Week?

Connors: What's that?

Machowicz: They quit.

Connors: So the things that you're teaching here are not just appropriate for Navy SEALs, they are appropriate for any walk of life, no matter what you're doing.

Machowicz: That's absolutely correct.

Connors: You've obviously been around extremely successful achievement-oriented people who have achieved extreme levels of success in their field, including your teammates in the SEALs. I've read that from application time to the finish of BUD/S only one in 6000 get through the process. So these are people who are executing at a level in life beyond what most people can comprehend. You also work directly with individuals who are professional athletes, top names in the entertainment industry and some very successful businessmen. If you could state a single characteristic, common theme, what would it be for their success?

Machowicz: A very clear target and perseverance.

When I look at the guys I've worked with that have been successful, the one thing I see consistently is the commitment to finish. Yes, they were willing to make a choice, they had the courage to start, but the thing that made the difference was the commitment to finish no matter what. Even if they were going to finish dead last, they were going to finish. I think that's the big thing. People do not finish what they start. A lot of people will start things but never see it through to the end.

Connors: These guys pick a target and are always moving forward to that target. Is that correct?

Machowicz: Absolutely. If you're at least going forward to the target, you're always moving forward in your world. And that's the most important thing. You have one life. You've got to play it full out. If you play it half-assed, if you play it partially, I'm telling you, on your deathbed, you'll be wondering why you ever were born.

Connors: Going back to the SEALs, had that become the mind frame, you'd be killed, you'd be out immediately?

Machowicz: Oh, yeah, I mean what happens is -- Vince Lombardi had a great quote, "Fatigue makes cowards of us all." Literally, what happens with BUD/s, you will have work that will have mentally and physically fatigued you to the point where you only have to blink for a second, when you're on your third or fourth day of
Hell Week, and you're freezing cold and you're miserable and you just saw three other people quit. You only have to have one moment... it only takes you 30 seconds to quit, and you've destroyed all that time that you've put in. You lose sight of the target, and it is over.

One of the things I did early during Hell Week was I would say, "Well, I made it through one evolution, I can make it through one more. I made it through two. I can make it through one more. I made it through three, I can make it through one more. If I made it through four evolutions, I can make it through one more. If I made it through four, I could probably do another four. If I did eight, I could probably do another eight. Oh, I've got one day down, let me try another day. I got two days down, I bet I can do one more day. I got three days down. You know what? I know I can do three more days."

Just let it go. And next thing you know, you start building this motor of momentum, this engine of momentum that just keeps driving you forward, keeps driving you forward, keeps driving you forward. Because I'm telling you, that conversation is not a conversation you're going away from. That is a conversation of moving forward. And moving forward toward a target that you set for yourself and refusing to quit. People say, "refuse to lose." I say "refuse to quit." Recognize the dialogue that leads to quitting and you won't have to worry about losing.

Connors: Paul "Bear" Bryant's famous quote, "The first time you quit it's hard, the second time is a little easier, and the third time you quit, you don't even have to think about it."

Machowicz: Perfect.

Connors: You talk about this in your book. Act as though it is impossible to fail.

Machowicz: Act as though it is impossible to fail. If you are doing these things, if you are clearly on your target, if you are persistent and committed to finishing and you are really committed to results vs. reason, you will succeed. Success is not some magic mystery out there. It is clear connection to the target.

Connors: Let me go back and ask you a question regarding chaos. During your combat missions, your life was very much on the line. If something goes wrong, you're dead. How do you eliminate the stress of that knowledge?

Machowicz: Stay focused only on the target, that's how!

Connors: And they teach you that in the SEALs? They teach you how to --

Machowicz: It's not even "teach," it's just "stay focused." What is the target? You may have to ask yourself that moment to moment. What do I have to do now?

What's the target now? This moment, this moment, this moment...

Always come back to the target. I can't stress that strong enough. I don't care what's happening...the universe could be falling apart around you. As long as you keep going, "What's the target? What do I have to do right now? What's the target right this second?" The results will take care of themselves. And to the outside world it will look like nothing ever phases you.

Connors: Summarize your message to us.

Machowicz: A single-minded focus on hitting the target and never quitting. It worked for me in my 10 years with the Navy SEALs, it works for the professional athletes I work with, and it works for the other successful people I work with. Live with the mind frame, "Not dead. Can't quit."

Connors: Thank you, Richard.

Machowicz: My pleasure. Thanks for having me.