A Pull Back Rally

Talks about Greece bail out resulted in strong rally in Global markets. US markets  also rallied on the back of fall in jobless claim and this increased the confidence of market participants in US economic recovery.

Back home we may also see a strong follow up.


Today we are discussing about two stocks which are a good short term as well as an invest buy for one year horizon.

We believe that Insurance Sector along with Health Care  is Sun Rise industries. Insurance will also penetrate in rural areas once the big companies realize the great potential they have in the rural sector. UID, NREGA and a very simple approach of claim, record keeping and printing of Insurance forms in Hindi or other vernacular language will go a long way in tapping this yet another bottom of the pyramid market. Hope Insurance companies wake up to these realities soon as the present Insurance system is heavily tilted towards urban educated populace.

Max India can be a safer bet for long term from this sector. It has support at 170-175 and resistances are at 200-225 and 240.

Another sector is from leisure and hospitality. .

Country Club has support at 21 and resistances are at 33-38-45.

Kovai Medical is up by 5 %

Kovai Medical is up by 5 %. Short term traders can book partial profit here

Time to be Cautious

Global markets had a volatile session yesterday after the S&P downgraded its debt rating on Spain. This follows downgrades on Greece and Portugal, which sparked a selloff day before.

This is time to lighten up, book profits  and wait on the sidelines with some cash in hand. Keep your volume low and buy small quantity and be quick to book profit.Nifty has major resistance at 5350-5400.


Reliance Industries  is attractive at these levels and one can also average it down if it falls further.

Going forward we may see volatile sessions ahead.


 Kovai Medical has very intresting patterns on charts. Its peer Apollo Hospital is also doing well.  In  a lighter vein in this global  financial turmoil  Hospital sector will do well

Kovai Medical has support at 145 and resistance is at 175 / 200.


IDFC has support at 160 and resistance is at 175




Trade well, trade wise and have fun

NFL is up 5 %

NFL has moved more than 5% . Now trailing stop is at 100.

ONGC Hits Target: Book Profit

ONGC has hit its final target . One should book profit

Market may remain sideways

Our one of the swing trading ideas Sterlite has done well yesterday.

Nifty may remain sideways  as it is trading near  a major resistance zone. Most of the Q 4 results are already factored in. Therefore, Index heavyweight may also remain sideways.
Mid cap space may show some momentum .
Expectation of good monsoon augurs well for select fertilizer stocks.Graphite India is trading at new highs. Graphite is used as moderator in Nuclear Reactor Plants

NFL has support at 96 and resistance is at 126


Graphite India  has support at 93  and resistances are  at 120-130


Trade well, trade less and have fun

Let Greece Go Bankrupt: Jim Rogers

Allowing Greece to go bankrupt may cause a lot of pain, but it will be better for the euro in the long run, investor Jim Rogers said in an interview with CNBC on Friday.

Sterlite is nearing first target : Book partial profit

Sterlite is trading near its first target of 830. Its time to book partial profit with trailing stop at 795.

Will Nifty breakout above 5400 ?

Last week we saw Nifty retesting 5160 after touching  a high of 5400.
Corporate Earnings have been as per the street  expectations and  ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank also came out with more than expected results. This will keep momentum up in banking sectors.
Going forward global cues , market reaction to RIL numbers will be key in deciding whether Nifty is able to trade above 5400 ? Nifty will gain further upward momentum if it is able to trade above 5400.
This level is also an opportunity to get rid of trash stocks.
Banking, Oil and Gas, Infra and Capital goods are the sectors which may carry the momentum up.

JP associate has support at 153 and resistances are at 167-175.


Godrej Industries  has support at 165 and resistances are at 185-190.


Sterlite  has support at 785  and resistances are at 830-850. 




Trade well

An Inspirational Video - The Law Of Attraction

Key Ingredients to Performing Your Best

1. Passion. You must be passionate about what you are doing and having fun. Passion first, then performance.

2. Confidence. Top performance comes from having a high degree of confidence. You must have the confidence that you can take control and face adversity. You must also be confident that you will have a favorable outcome over time.

3. Concentration. Peak performance comes from exceptional CONCENTRATION. You must concentrate on the process, though, not the outcome. A sprinter who is in the lead is thinking about the wind on their face, how relaxed their arms are, feeling the perfect stride…they are totally in the moment. The person who does NOT have the edge is thinking, “Oh, that runner is pulling ahead of me…I don’t know if I have enough wind to catch the leader…” They are tense and tight because they are thinking about the outcome, not the process.

4. Resiliency. Great performances come from being able to rebound quickly and forget about mistakes.

5. Challenge. Great performance comes from pushing yourself and trying to overcome limitations. Staying in the safe zone becomes a monkey on your back. Challenge yourself to take that hard trade. Manage it. If it does not work out, so what…your risk was limited and you can pat yourself on the back for taking the hard trade in the first place.

6. See and DO don't think! Great performance comes from turning off the brain and becoming automatic. This is being in the Zone …in the groove. You can’t overanalyze the markets during the trading day.

 7 Relaxation. When you are relaxed, your reflexes and timing are superior because you are loose.

ONGC bounces back - Hits first target

ONGC has bounced back and is trading near the first target.Time to book partial profits

Jayshree Tea has also hit its first resistance

Market seems exhausted

Banking sectors did have a follow up yesterday but it failed to take Nifty to key resistance level of 5300. It remained volatile . Going forward  though  a lot will depend on global cues but on chart Nifty seems exhausted .Nifty will have upward momentum only above 5400.
One should also look for shorting opportunities at higher levels.

Jayshree Tea has corrected a lot  and it has support at  285 and resistances are at 305-314-322.

Ge Shipping  can become a sell candidate only if it trades below 330 with stop of 340 for a target of 320-315

Trade well.

Book profit in Nagarjuna Construnction

Today Nifty may reach the hurdle of 5300  today on the back of good global cues.
One should book profit in Nagarjuna Construnction and wait on the sidelines for the market to show its hand.

Despite market expectation of RBI credit policies Bank stocks did not have a fancy run yesterday. Lets see if they get  a follow up buying today.

Oil and Gas sector stocks  may see some action today . ONCG is trading at crucial support of 998 and may bounce back to 1030- 1040.

Trade well, trade less and more important -- have fun !

Ngarjuna Construction Hits First target

Ngarjuna Construction Hits First target. One should book partial profit.

We are not out of woods yet !

Market may see a pull back today on the back of good global cues.Going forward 5250-5300 will act as stiff resistance.

Nagarjuna Construction  has support at 165 and if it trades above 166.80 then it could hit its resistance levels of 178-185.

Goldman Could Trigger Market Correction: Jim Rogers

Some expert investors have described the market's reaction to the SEC's accusations against Goldman Sachs as a 'storm in a teacup.' They believe the fallout would be  short-lived, and eventually present buying opportunities.


However, billionaire investor Jim Rogers, Chairman of Rogers Holdings, feels slightly differently.

You can read the full story at :

 http://www.cnbc.com/id/36616382

Market may remain Volatile

Market may start this week with cautious. Fears of an adverse outcome of the RBI’s annual policy meet on tomorrow may also weigh high on the market.

Its best to wait on the sidelines and keep the strong stocks on our radar.

Zydus wellness, Cox and kings,Pirmal health, Fortis healthcare,are to be kept on your watch list. 

Liquidity may tapper off.

On Charts Nifty has broken down and below 5250 it may remain in short term downtrend.

Interest rate sensitive sectors may remain under pressure

Principles of Peak Performance

The first principle of peak performance is to put fun and passion first. Get the performance pressures out of your head. Forget about statistics, percentage returns, win/loss ratios, etc. Floor-traders scratch dozens of trades during the course of a day, but all that matters is whether they're up at the end of the month.

The second principle of peak performance is confidence. in yourself, your methodology, and your ability to succeed. Some people are naturally born confident. Other people are able to translate success from another area in their life. Perhaps they were good in sports, music, or academics growing up. There's also the old-fashioned "hard work" way of getting confidence. Begin by researching and developing different systems or methodologies. Put in the hours of backtesting. Tweak and modify the systems so as to make them your own. Study the charts until you've memorized every significant swing high or low. Self-confidence comes from developing a methodology that YOU believe in.
Concentrate on the technical conditions. Have a clear game plan. Don't listen to CNBC, your broker, or a friend. You must do your own analysis and have confidence in your game plan to be a successful trader.

The third important ingredient for achieving peak performance is attitude. Attitude is how you deal with the inevitable adverse situations that occur in the markets. Attitude is also how you handle the daily grind, the constant 2 steps forward and 2 steps back. Every professional has gone through long flat times. Slumps are inevitable for it's impossible to stay on top of your game 100% of the time. Once you've dug yourself out of a hole, no matter how long it takes, you know that you can do it again. If you've done something once, it is a repeatable act. That knowledge is a powerful weapon and can make you a much stronger trader.


Most people react differently when they're under pressure. They tend to be more emotional or reactive. They tense up and judgment is often impaired. Many talented athletes can't cut it because they choke when the pressure's on. You could be a brilliant analyst but a lousy trader. Consistency is far more important than brilliance. Just strive for consistency in what you do and let go of the performance expectations.

If you admit to yourself that you truly don't have the will to win at this game, don't try to trade. It is too easy to lose too much money. Many people think that they'll enjoy trading when they really don't. It's boring at times, lonely during the day, mentally trying, with little structure or security. The markets are not a logical or fair playing ground. But there are numerous inefficiencies and patterns ready to be exploited, and there always will be.

Divergence Worked

On Daily Chart Nifty had divergence and finally price followed the momentum.

Nifty may try a pull back and one have to see its strength at key resistances of 5320 - 5350.

We will have a short term trend reversal only if Nifty trades below 5250.

Geometric Software has support at 70.50 and resistances are at 79- 84

Keep your volume low.

Trade less, trade well

Rally in Global Markets

commodity including crude oil prices have rallied on the back of better-than-estimated corporate earnings . It has increased confidence of risk takers in the global economic rebound.

Bernanke statement “On balance, the incoming data suggest that growth in private final demand will be sufficient to promote a moderate economic recovery in coming quarters,”also eased the concern .

On CRB Index Sugar and Crude Oil futures have rallied more than 2.0 %.

Cairn has support at 300 and resistance at 315.

Balrampur Chini has support at 93 and resistance at 106

RS Software has support at 48 and resistance at 65-68

Have fun keep your volume low and trade well

Bull and Bear Markets

Bull Markets are-

• Born on pessimism
• Grow on skepticism
• Mature on optimism
• Die on euphoria

Bear Markets are

• Born on recessions
• Grow on technical breakdowns
• Mature on eco-political nightmares
• Die on world-is-coming-to-an-end

Is majority skeptical now ?

Is gold ready to challenge its all-time high?

Adam Hewison,President, INO.com,Co-creator, Market Club presents this video on Gold movement.



http://broadcast.ino.com/education/gold412/

Flight to safety

Nifty is showing divergence on daily chart. If nifty trades below 5250 then only we would be able to say that a short term trend reversal is on cards.

On the up side a breakout above 5400 will confirm fresh upward momentum .

NFL has support at 98 and resistances are at 112-118 -124.

Ideas for the week

Nifty is going into the tenth week after closing in positive for the last nine weeks. On daily charts divergence is still there. As we go higher the risk also gets higher.
Its liquidity driven market so watch your steps.
keep your volumes low, follow stops and be quick to book profit.
For short term traders Nifty has supports at 5300-5320.

Some of the ideas for the week are :

Jai corp : Support 275 , resistance 315

Godrej properties : Support 520 , resistance 560


GSPL : Support 90 , resistance 104

Trade less, trade well and have fun

The Mental Aspect of Trading by Linda Bradford Raschke

Many traders quickly come to acknowledge that despite being familiar with winning strategies, systems, and money management techniques, trading success is dependent on your psychological state of mind. If you're a trader just starting out, where do you find the initial confidence to pull the trigger? How do you deal with the down times without digging yourself deeper into the hole? If you are in a hole, how do you work your way back out? How do experienced traders push through the ceiling of profitability that caps their initial trading years and make a truly fabulous living?

Trading is a performance-oriented discipline. Stress and mental pressures can affect your ability to function and impact your bottom line. Much of what has been learned about achieving peak performance in both business and sports can be applied to trading. But before looking at some of these factors, let's first examine the ways that trading differs from other businesses.

1. Intellect has nothing to do with your ability as a trader. Success is not a function of how smart you are or how much you have applied yourself academically. This is hard to accept in a society that puts a premium on intellect.
2. There is no customer or client good will built up each day in your business. Customer relationships, traditionally important in American businesses, have little to do with a trader's profitability. Each day is a clean slate.
3. The traditionally 8-5 work ethic doesn't apply in this business! A trader could sit in front of a screen all day waiting for a recognizable pattern to occur and have nothing happen. There is a temptation to take marginal trades just so a trader can feel like he's doing something. There's also the dilemma of putting in constant hours of research, having nothing to show for it, and not getting paid for the work done. Yet if a trader works too hard, he risks burn- out. And what about those months where 19 out of 20 days are profitable, but the trader gives it all back in one or two bad days? How can a trader account for his productivity in these situations?
4. If you were to invest time, energy, and emotion into developing a business venture and backed out at the last minute, it would be considered a failure. However, you should be able to invest time and energy into researching a trading idea, and yet still be able to change your mind at the last minute. Market conditions change, and we cannot be expected to predict all the variables with foresight. Getting out of a bad trade with only a small loss should be considered a big success!
What IS the definition of a successful trader? He should feel good about himself and enjoy playing the game. You can make a few small trades a year as a hobby, generate some very modest profits, and be quite successful because you had fun. There are also aggressive traders who have had big years, but ultimately blow-out, ruin their health or lead miserable lives from all the stress they put themselves under.

Next week we will discuss about peak performance ;
The first principle of peak performance is to put fun and passion first. Get the performance pressures out of your head. Forget about statistics, percentage returns, win/loss ratios, etc.
More in next week.
Have a nice weekend ahead !

Price followed momentum

We mentioned in our previous post that on Nifty daily chart we saw divergence. The oscillators were not making new highs while Nifty was trading at new high . Price always follow momentum.Today we saw a small correction.

Our earlier idea Sunil high Tech has achieved target. one should book profit

Nifty is still in uptrend and these dips offer buying opportunities.

Cipla has support at 330 and resistance is at 355.

HPCL : A forgotten stock

OMC stock have of late fallen from the grace and are almost a forgotten entities.
As a trader we should look for these opportunities. Crude oil price had a non stop rally for more than a week and have reached 18- month high and are trading at major resistance area . We do not see a further upside on crude oil price on a short term basis. Any fall in crude oil price will prove beneficial for OMCs.

HPCL is trading near a major support area.It can be bought with a stop at 290 for a pull back level of 325- 340.

The World's Biggest Debtor Nations

Throughout the financial crisis, many national economies have looked to their government and foreign lenders for financial support, which translates to increased spending, borrowing and in most cases, growing national debt.

Deficit spending, government debt and private sector borrowing are the norm in most western countries, but due in part to the financial crisis, some nations and economies are in considerably worse debt positions than others.


You can know about this by watching the slide presented by CNBC.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/30308959/

Neyveli Lignite

Neyveli Lignite has resumed its upswing . It has support at 146 and resistances are at 162-168 and 175.

Mid Cap Auto Sector on focus

Today Nifty had a flat closing. On charts the divergence is still there. Lets see whether price will follow the momentum or not ?
On Nifty daily chart leading indicators are not making new highs while Nifty is at new high.Coming few session will show us what is in store. any way, its better to loose opinion than money.

Today Mid cap Auto stocks saw buying interest . Mid cap is the place where action is going to be .

Motherson Sumi Systems has support at 126 and resistances are at 145- 152 & 155.

Trade well and learn about the market tendencies .

Keep PSU banks on your radar

Mid cap PSU banks are showing momentum on charts and rising crude oil prices augurs well for oil and gas sector.

Bank of Maharastra has support at 48 and resistances are at 54- 59

HOEC has support at 227 and resistances are at 282-294 .

Nifty Breaks out on aTrend Day

Nifty broke out of the recent resistance of 5330 . Today was a trend day on such day market closes at extremes.

Though Nifty made a new high but on charts momentum oscillators failed to make a new high.

Is it divergence or are we being the party spoiler ? Well , just a simple observation.

Prices are making a new high but oscillators are not making a new highs.
Just a time to be cautious when everybody is euphoric.

In light of the above we would bet on low risk opportunity.
NMDC of late has been thrashed a lot.
Its historic support is at 280 zone.Its recent support is at 290. Its trading in a narrow range between 290-300. A pull back can take it to 325 -340..
Iron ore prices are also firming up.

Trade less , trade wise .

Ideas for the week

Nifty is hovering near its major resistance level. One should watch for closing above 5330 for a few trading sessions.

Everonn system has manged to claw back and closed above 200 EMA with increase in volume after trading below it for 14 days. It has support at 370 and resistances are at 406-418 and 428.

Zydus Wellness : We talked about this stock in our blog before on Feb. 02, 2010 and since then this stock has outperformed the market. The stock is strong on all time frame and should be bough on every dip. The support is at 378 and target could be 450-500.

Trade consistently and have fun.

Linda Bradford Raschke On Indicators and Trading

Linda Bradford Raschke is President of LBRGroup, Inc She was recognized in Jack Schwager's critically acclaimed book, The New Market Wizards, and is known for her own top selling book, Street Smarts - High Probability Short-Term Trading Strategies. She has been featured in dozens of financial publications, radio and financial television programs, and has served on the Board of Directors for the Market Technician's Association and is currently Vice President of the American Association of Professional Technical Analysts.

You can watch her presentation on Technical Analysis and Trading
There are seven videos and you should start by watching Classic Indicators 1/7 and then watch 2/ 7 till you finish 7/7.
Hope you will use this long weekend to learn a brief history of TA.


http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsI2JxGx5Es

There is another video on Trading Education - Emotional Intelligence for Traders

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tdm0eXGq0PI&feature=PlayList&p=0E632E0829950F8E&playnext_from=PL&index=0&playnext=1





Have a nice weekend ahead.